Unlock Storm Overview
Recently, multiple projects including HYPE, SUI, EIGEN, KMNO, OP, ENA, SVL, and ZORA are set to experience a concentrated unlocking from December 29 to January 2, forming a new round of "unlock storm" across the New Year. In terms of scale, the amount unlocked for a single token ranges from approximately $6.7 million to about $250 million, accounting for roughly 0.56%–9.74% of their respective circulating supply. This includes "low ratio releases" like ENA, which accounts for less than 1%, as well as high ratio events like EIGEN and KMNO, which have one-time unlocks exceeding 5% of their circulating supply. A rough estimate from a single source suggests that the overall unlocking amount this week may be in the hundreds of millions of dollars, with the market describing it as "the largest single-week release in recent times." Against the backdrop of macro liquidity not significantly expanding, the concentrated release on the supply side and the real capacity of the secondary market to absorb this supply creates a potential mismatch: on one hand, new tokens continuously flow into the circulating pool within a few days; on the other hand, there is uncertainty about whether the incremental funds and trading depth can match this pace, amplifying the pricing pressure from price volatility and liquidity withdrawal risks.
Project and Scale Analysis
In terms of specific timing, this round of concentrated unlocking shows a clear temporal clustering: HYPE plans to unlock approximately 9.92 million tokens at 15:30 on December 29, accounting for about 2.87% of its circulating supply, equivalent to approximately $250 million at current prices, making it the largest single release in terms of amount this week; at 8:00 on December 30, SVL and ZORA will unlock approximately 234 million and 166 million tokens, corresponding to about $6.8 million and $6.7 million, accounting for approximately 2.96% and 4.17% of their circulating supply; that evening at 20:00, KMNO will unlock about 229 million tokens, amounting to approximately $11.7–11.8 million, accounting for around 5.35% of its circulating supply. After entering the New Year, at 8:00 on January 1, SUI will unlock approximately 43.69 million tokens, worth about $63.36 million, accounting for about 1.17% of its circulating supply; on the same day at 12:00, EIGEN will unlock approximately 36.82 million tokens, valued at about $14.44 million, accounting for as much as 9.74% of its circulating supply. Subsequently, at 8:00 on December 31, OP will release approximately 31.34 million tokens, amounting to about $8.6 million, accounting for 1.65%; on January 2 at 15:00, ENA will unlock approximately 40.63 million tokens, worth about $8.6 million, only accounting for about 0.56% of its circulating supply. Overall, HYPE and SUI rank at the top in terms of amount, while EIGEN and KMNO are more impactful in terms of ratio. The above data is mainly based on publicly available unlocking schedules and market prices, with some estimates, such as "total unlocking scale exceeding $400 million," coming from a single source and still needing further market verification and cross-comparison.
Supply, Demand, and Liquidity
On the supply side, the tokens unlocked this round mainly come from historical distribution pools such as early investors, teams, and ecological funds, theoretically constituting a potential source of selling pressure. However, there are currently no publicly available and verifiable specific selling plans or timing arrangements, and the outside world can only infer risk exposure from the attributes of the tokens and the unlocking window. Historical statistics show that when the scale of a single unlock exceeds about 5% of the circulating supply, prices and volatility often experience significant disturbances. EIGEN (approximately 9.74%) and KMNO (approximately 5.35%) in this list fall within this sensitive range. Generally speaking, the higher the ratio, the greater the short-term marginal supply increment. If the order book depth is insufficient, it is easy to amplify slippage during concentrated sell-offs, leading to downward "squeezing" of market prices; conversely, ratios below 1%, such as ENA's 0.56%, are more easily absorbed by daily trading volume under sufficient liquidity conditions. There are also views in the market that HYPE's unlocking amount is about three times its average daily trading volume. If this multiplicative difference is true, it will significantly increase the difficulty of liquidity absorption. However, this claim still requires further data verification, and investors need to pay attention to the reliability and timeliness of information sources when assessing liquidity impacts.
Historical Unlock Replay
Looking back at past large unlocking events of mainstream tokens, market performance often exhibits a two-phase characteristic of "expectation–realization": in the weeks leading up to the unlocking date, prices reflect the anticipated supply shock in advance, with some projects experiencing prior corrections or sideways digestion; on the unlocking day and a few days before and after, volatility significantly increases, sometimes resulting in a brief rebound after "bad news realization," while in cases of insufficient liquidity, further declines may occur. Empirical research shows that when the unlocking ratio is low (e.g., in the 1%–2% range), the average return in the days before and after T is more driven by macro sentiment and the fundamentals of the individual token, while at >5%, the maximum short-term drawdown and the central volatility of intraday fluctuations significantly increase. To hedge against unlocking shocks, historically, some funds have actively reduced leverage, cut positions in high-elasticity targets before the event, or used futures and options for directional and volatility hedging to smooth net exposure. In this round of events, projects like EIGEN and KMNO with unlocking ratios >5% statistically compare with past high-ratio events, but the overall liquidity, derivative depth, and project narrative phase in this cycle differ from the past, which may lead to "similar patterns but different outcomes," limiting the reference value of a single historical sample.
Price Path Scenarios
From the perspective of trading evolution, this round of concentrated unlocking can be broken down into various scenarios: in an optimistic case, the market has fully priced in the supply pressure in advance, with prices experiencing proactive adjustments before the unlocking, moderate volume expansion during the event, and new tokens gradually absorbed by long-term funds or market makers, maintaining or slightly increasing prices after volatility; in a neutral scenario, some tokens may experience emotional sell-offs as the unlocking approaches, with increased volume and volatility on the unlocking day, followed by repricing based on macro sentiment and project fundamentals; the pessimistic scenario assumes weak funding sentiment and insufficient incremental funds, with multiple projects releasing simultaneously causing liquidity withdrawal, putting pressure on both price and depth. Structurally, if sentiment reacts in advance, the day of unlocking may see a dominant wait-and-see sentiment, resulting in a relatively mild impact; conversely, if trading volume only concentrates and expands at the unlocking point, the pressure on the order book and amplified slippage will enhance price volatility. The quality of project fundamentals, the concentration of secondary holdings, and macro market conditions will jointly determine whether the unlocking impact is amplified or mitigated: projects with strong fundamentals, dispersed holdings, and in a rising risk appetite cycle are more likely to buffer the impact through relay buying; conversely, they may face the risk of amplified declines. Additionally, multiple projects releasing simultaneously may trigger intra-sector linkage and shifts in funding styles, such as funds flowing from high unlock, high valuation targets to alternative assets with lower short-term supply pressure, reallocating risk through rotation.
Risks and Responses
Considering the scale, timing, and historical experience, this round of concentrated unlocking across multiple projects is at a relatively high level in terms of amount, with some individual projects having single unlock amounts reaching hundreds of millions of dollars, with ratios close to or exceeding 5%, making the overall risk level significant. However, currently, key information regarding the specific destination of tokens after unlocking, whether there are off-market agreements, whether project parties are conducting market support or re-locking arrangements, has not been publicly disclosed or verified. Any inference about specific selling plans or market support actions exceeds compliance boundaries, and investors need to remain sensitive and restrained regarding information gaps. From an operational perspective, a more feasible approach is to build a data-driven risk management framework: focus on monitoring changes in spot and contract trading volume, order book depth, bid-ask spreads, and funding rates before and after unlocking, identifying whether there is abnormal volume selling pressure or sudden liquidity drops, and cross-verify with the project's own circulating structure and news flow. Key indicators to continuously track include: large on-chain transfers and concentrated inflow/outflow behaviors in the days following the unlocking, changes in the order structure of major trading pairs, and any official disclosure updates from project parties and early investors, to dynamically adjust judgments on the supply shock path and market absorption capacity.
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