I just saw Teddy's tweet, and I’d like to share my own views:
- Breakthroughs in quantum computing lead to a collapse of confidence in Bitcoin and a sharp price drop.
Quantum computing has indeed been mentioned by many recently, but in comparison to $BTC, its destructive power on the traditional banking industry is greater, and we may not see quantum computing cracking codes in the short term. Why?
The answer is simple: the top institutions in the tech field, including BlackRock, currently hold a dominant position. If they believed that the likelihood of quantum computing succeeding soon was high, there would be no need for them to enter the cryptocurrency space, and BlackRock is still a leader in the cryptocurrency field.
Instead, I am more concerned about miners facing rising electricity costs and overall expenses, which could lead to a significant depreciation of mining machines as BTC prices fluctuate downward. Signs of this have already begun to appear.
- The Federal Reserve's unexpected interest rate hike leads to a significant correction in Bitcoin as a risk asset.
It’s not impossible, but the likelihood is still low. The main reason is that in the first half of the year, Powell is holding things down, and the Federal Reserve won’t make significant changes. In the second half, with Trump’s influence, maintaining a tight policy would be good enough; an interest rate hike would only happen if inflation rebounds significantly, which currently seems unlikely.
Instead, I am more worried that even if there is a change in the Federal Reserve chair, Trump may still not be able to exert influence, and the Federal Reserve might maintain a policy of about two rate cuts throughout the year, which could have a greater impact on the market.
- Midterm election results lead to an anti-crypto Congress dominating, shifting crypto policy.
It is indeed possible that the Democrats could take control of the House in the midterm elections, but this would not mean that the Democrats could become a barrier to cryptocurrency. In fact, several cryptocurrency-related bills have been promoted by both the Democrats and Republicans, especially the stablecoin bill, so it is unlikely that the Democrats would oppose cryptocurrency. Moreover, the bills from the SEC and CFTC have also been approved by both parties.
Instead, I am more concerned that after losing the House, Trump might start to go crazy.
- The U.S. crypto market structure bill Clarity fails to pass, leading to a slowdown in institutional adoption of crypto.
This bill mainly concerns the transparency of stablecoin payments and has already passed in the House, but faces some resistance in the Senate, mainly due to concerns about undermining the position of traditional banks. However, Circle obtaining the OCC license conditionally is essentially like getting on the bus first and paying later.
Instead, I am more worried that tax-related bills might force some investors to sell their assets to pay taxes.
- USDT may decouple due to reserve issues or a banking crisis, triggering a chain reaction that destroys confidence in the stablecoin industry.
I don’t believe this; the reasons are obvious.
- Large DeFi protocols are attacked, magnifying RWA, causing systemic risk.
The likelihood is low. Even if DeFi protocols face systemic risks, it has little to do with the so-called RWA currently, as there are almost no completely reliable RWAs at the moment. If we are talking about those on-chain in the U.S. stock market, I think we are far from systemic risk.
Instead, I am more concerned that in 2026, there may be a major blowup or a larger-scale theft incident involving well-known exchanges, which could even lead to an inability to repay user assets.
- AI technology experiences a second revolutionary leap after ChatGPT, capturing all the attention of the capital market, further sidelining web3.
In fact, cryptocurrency has not seen any remarkable technological iterations for a long time. Not to mention AI, even in recent years, the rise of BTC has hardly been driven by significant technological updates that brought major breakthroughs in cryptocurrency. If cryptocurrency relies on technology as a selling point, it would likely have already gone to zero.
Instead, I am worried that the computing power and electricity of AI may encroach on the space of cryptocurrency.
These are my personal views, and they may not be correct. Thanks to Teddy for the summary.
免责声明：本文章仅代表作者个人观点，不代表本平台的立场和观点。本文章仅供信息分享，不构成对任何人的任何投资建议。用户与作者之间的任何争议，与本平台无关。如网页中刊载的文章或图片涉及侵权，请提供相关的权利证明和身份证明发送邮件到support@aicoin.com，本平台相关工作人员将会进行核查。
