Introduction: From Macro Theory to Practical Allocation

The first part of this series focuses on building a high-level framework: stepping outside the limitations of cryptocurrency, understanding liquidity as a core driver, and anchoring asset behavior within the macroeconomic cycle. However, such frameworks often face practical challenges.

Many investors find that while macro analysis sounds compelling, it yields little in actual decision-making. Interest rates, inflation, and liquidity trends seem far removed from the choices in everyday portfolios. This gap between theory and practice is the reason most macro frameworks fail.

The latter half of this series aims to address this shortcoming. The key is not to abandon macro thinking, but to refine it by decomposing assets. Pricing Attributes which assets adopt global pricing and which adopt local pricing. This distinction determines how capital actually flows and why some markets perform well while others stagnate.

Attribute Decomposition: Why Pricing Mechanisms Matter

After mapping out the global asset distribution, the next step is to decompose assets based on their pricing mechanisms. This step is crucial because capital is limited. When funds flow into one market, they inevitably flow out of another.

On the surface, cryptocurrencies seem to have no borders. They trade around the clock, unaffected by national exchanges or geographical limitations. However, the funds flowing into the cryptocurrency market are not entirely without borders. These funds originate from specific markets: the U.S. stock market, the Japanese bond market, the European savings market, or emerging market capital.

This presents an important analytical challenge. While cryptocurrency prices are global, their sources of funds are local. Understanding this is vital. Where the money comes from is as important as understanding why it moves.

The same applies to traditional assets. Stock research must distinguish between U.S. stocks, Japanese stocks, and European stocks. Each stock reflects different economic structures, policy systems, and capital behaviors. Only with clear distinctions can macro variables come into play.

Why Macroeconomics Often Feels "Useless" in Practice

One reason macro analysis is often overlooked is that it is perceived as disconnected from practical operations. When deciding whether to purchase a specific asset, inflation data and central bank speeches seem abstract and intangible.

However, this is not because macroeconomics is irrelevant, but because its application is often too broad.

Excess returns do not come from isolating predictions of economic growth or inflation, but from understanding how changes in the macroeconomic environment affect returns. Reallocating marginal capital among competing assets depends not on absolute conditions, but on relative attractiveness.

When capital is scarce, it concentrates; when liquidity expands, it seeks opportunities everywhere. Ignoring this process means passively waiting for market narratives rather than seizing opportunities and leading market trends.

Studying macro trends allows investors to track the most favorable assets at different times, rather than being stuck in inactive markets waiting for conditions to improve.

Global Pricing Assets: One Dollar, One Market

Some assets adopt global pricing. The implicit assumption behind this classification is the dollar as the world currency anchor.

Cryptocurrencies, gold, and major commodities fall into this category. Their prices reflect global supply and demand dynamics rather than the conditions of any single economy. Whether dollars flow in from New York or Tokyo, they have the same impact on global prices.

This has significant implications: the indicators used to analyze these assets have a high degree of overlap. Real interest rates, dollar liquidity, global risk appetite, and monetary policy expectations often simultaneously affect all three.

Due to this overlap, global pricing assets are typically the most effective targets for macro-driven asset allocation. A correct assessment of liquidity conditions can yield returns across multiple markets.

This is the first layer of asset rotation efficiency: understanding when global pricing assets will benefit from the same macro tailwinds.

Stocks as Local Pricing Assets

The nature of stocks is different. Stocks represent a claim on the future cash flows of specific economic entities. Therefore, even in the era of global capital markets, stock prices still have a local character.

While global liquidity is important, it is also influenced by significant local factors. Each stock market is affected by its unique combination of structural factors.

The U.S. stock market is influenced by global capital inflows, technological leadership, and the dominance of multinational corporations. Its valuations often reflect not only domestic economic growth but also the ability of U.S. companies to generate profits globally.

The Japanese stock market is highly responsive to exchange rate dynamics, corporate governance reforms, and long-term deflationary recovery. Even moderate inflation or wage growth can have a significant impact on market sentiment and valuations.

The European stock market is more sensitive to energy costs, fiscal constraints, and regional political coordination. Economic growth is often slower, making the effects of policy stability and cost structures more pronounced.

Due to these differences, equity investment requires deeper local knowledge than investing in global pricing assets. Macro trends lay the foundation, but local structures determine the final outcomes.

Bonds as Jurisdictionally Priced Assets

The bond market is more localized. Each sovereign bond market reflects specific currencies, fiscal capacities, and central bank credibility. Unlike stocks, bonds are directly related to a country's balance sheet.

Government bonds are not just a tool for yield; they are a manifestation of trust: trust in monetary policy, fiscal discipline, and institutional stability.

This makes bond analysis particularly complex. Two countries may have similar inflation rates, but their bond market dynamics can differ dramatically due to factors like monetary systems, debt structures, or political risks.

In this sense, bonds are jurisdictionally priced assets. Their performance cannot be generalized across markets. Studying bonds requires an understanding of each country's balance sheets, policy credibility, and long-term demographic pressures.

Conclusion: This is Just a Framework, Not a Commitment

The second part has refined the structural foundation of the global asset allocation framework. It does not provide shortcuts or guarantees, but offers a perspective to help us understand the true cycles of capital.

By distinguishing between global pricing and local pricing, and recognizing that cryptocurrencies depend on risk tolerance rather than narratives, investors can gain clearer insights into where opportunities arise.

The most interesting insights will emerge in subsequent phases—when this framework is applied to real-time data and capital flow signals. These meanings will be explored gradually, as value itself is embedded in the process.

The framework is just the beginning; the real work starts with observation.

The above viewpoints reference @Web3___Ace

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