Market Overview
Recently, the AiCoin Daily has focused on several core clues: First, the two hard forks of Ethereum planned for 2026, Glamsterdam and Heze-Bogota, are amplifying market expectations around gas limits, ZK verification, and scaling paths; second, discussions at the macro level regarding Trump being rumored to "run for Federal Reserve Chairman in next year's election," inflation, and interest rate paths are heating up, coinciding with spot gold breaking approximately $4,400 per ounce and silver reaching historic highs as a safe-haven trend; third, on-chain funding aspects, including Bitmine incorporating approximately $88 million worth of ETH into reserves, with total holdings exceeding 4 million ETH, and rumors of a new round of USDC Treasury minting, are bringing new speculation about chip structure and potential liquidity. These multiple clues intertwine, driving expectations for ETH technical upgrades, institutional accumulation, and rumors of stablecoin issuance, collectively impacting the funding and sentiment: on one end, there is medium to long-term optimism regarding the 2026 scaling and RWA narrative, while on the other end, there is caution due to the lack of confirmed information on USDC minting details and Trump's personnel arrangements. It is important to emphasize that some current data (such as gold at $4,500, silver at $73, and Trump's "run for Federal Reserve Chairman" statement) diverges from real-time and official information, belonging more to the realm of predictions or speculations, and should only be regarded as references for sentiment and expectations, rather than as established facts.
Ethereum Upgrade
Regarding Ethereum, the market is currently focused on the two hard forks, Glamsterdam and Heze-Bogota, expected to be implemented in 2026. The relevant timeline remains broadly defined as "2026," with community discussions largely based on developer meetings and KOL interpretations, and no precise month or block height has been officially locked in. Among the disclosed and widely cited design goals, Glamsterdam is believed to raise the gas limit of Ethereum L1 to the 200 million level and simultaneously introduce improvements aimed at ZK verification, laying the groundwork for snowballing scalability; Heze-Bogota is seen as further optimizing the execution environment and verification logic, creating space for larger-scale Rollup and ZK systems. According to KOL @Wu Says Blockchain and others, the community's expectation is that after the gas limit is raised to 200 million and native support for ZK proofs is strengthened, Ethereum is expected to support an overall processing capacity of about 10,000 transactions per second (10k TPS) and enhance the competitiveness of Rollup in payment, DeFi, and RWA scenarios by lowering L2 costs. Meanwhile, institutional analyses and investment bank views cited by @BITWU.ETH often link high target price expectations with "large-scale on-chain RWA assets" and "ETH becoming the core asset for on-chain collateral and settlement," but these are forward-looking assumptions derived from market projections based on technical paths and macro environments, rather than price commitments made by the Ethereum Foundation or core developers. It is important to distinguish that the current short-term trading sentiment is more influenced by whale accumulation and leverage structures, while the 2026 technical upgrade remains in the medium to long-term pricing dimension, with a clear mismatch in timing: short-cycle bullish and bearish fluctuations do not directly negate the potential restructuring of ETH valuation after the upgrade is completed; conversely, the certainty of the technical route provides a logical anchor for long-term funds to position themselves amid volatility.
Institutions and Funding
In terms of institutional funding, Bitmine recently incorporated approximately $88 million worth of ETH into reserves, bringing its total holdings to over 4 million ETH, a significant figure in the current circulating supply. The concentration of large-scale holdings on one hand indicates that such institutions are more inclined to view ETH as a "core collateral" or "strategic reserve" on their long-term balance sheets, which somewhat reduces the free chips available for rapid sale in the secondary market; on the other hand, the concentration of large addresses also increases the potential risk of a single institution or a few players impacting liquidity through concentrated selling in extreme market conditions. Looking back over a longer time frame, traditional financial institutions like BlackRock have been repeatedly monitored for making large deposits of BTC and ETH into custodial and trading platforms like Coinbase over the past year, with related scales often in the tens of millions to over a hundred million dollars. This cross-cycle continuous accumulation behavior outlines a trend of traditional institutions incorporating Bitcoin and Ethereum into multi-asset allocation frameworks and gradually increasing their weights. In contrast, there are rumors of a new round of minting and fund allocation actions from the USDC Treasury, but currently, public channels only reveal scattered fragments, lacking complete on-chain analysis and cross-validation from mainstream data service providers, making it more suitable to be classified as a "potential liquidity variable," rather than a confirmed positive factor. In the structural evolution of funding preferences, the RWA narrative is intersecting with institutional allocation logic: for many traditional institutions, ETH is not just a "public chain token," but may also be a key settlement asset and yield capture tool in future RWA issuance, clearing, and collateral systems, forming new risk-return relationships with gold, government bonds, stocks, and others on the same balance sheet.
Whale Long and Short Battle
In terms of short-term on-chain speculation, AiCoin's real-time monitoring shows that addresses marked as "profitable long whales" have recently engaged in frequent and substantial operations on BTC and ETH contracts. For example, in the case of ETH, this address first reduced its long position by 1,500 ETH at a certain time, with a nominal value of about $4.36 million, incurring a cumulative loss of about $66,600; shortly after, it further reduced its long position, leaving only about $1.45 million in remaining ETH long positions, which were in a floating loss state of about $24,400. Subsequently, this whale made a more aggressive directional adjustment on ETH: first closing out a long position of 500 ETH, then directly opening a short position of 1,000 ETH, with a nominal value of about $2.9 million at the time of opening. Although only a slight floating profit of about $3,500 was recorded at the monitoring point, the position direction had shifted from the previous "profitable long" to a clearly bearish stance. On the BTC contract, this address exhibited a similar rhythm—within a few hours, it first reduced its long position by 35 BTC (about $3.03 million), then further closed out 75 BTC long positions and opened a short position of 125 BTC, with a nominal short position of about $10.89 million, currently in a slight profit state of about $530. Combining the large long and short operations of multiple addresses labeled as "profitable long whales" and "short snipers" on mainstream assets like BTC, ETH, and SOL over the past year, it can be observed that the current market maintains characteristics of high leverage and short-cycle speculation: whales frequently adjust their positions, reversing and increasing their stakes, significantly amplifying price elasticity in key ranges, and once the direction goes awry, the liquidation chain can be quickly activated. For the short-term market, this address's behavior of shifting from "profitable long" to concentrated short accumulation has released a signal to the market of caution regarding upward space and a more defensive stance towards pullbacks and fluctuations, increasing the probability of severe price corrections and chain liquidations near high levels. From a longer perspective, this type of tactical trading is clearly misaligned with the 2026 technical upgrade and institutional medium to long-term layouts: whales are leveraging emotional volatility and leverage structures before expectations are fulfilled, rather than denying Ethereum's fundamental value, which also explains why, under a backdrop of bullish technical and institutional logic, the market can still experience concentrated short-dominated phases.
Macro and Safe-Haven
In the macro environment, spot gold has recently broken through approximately $4,400 per ounce, reaching a new high range, and silver prices have also hit historic highs. This combination is widely viewed as a direct window into global risk aversion sentiment and rising inflation expectations: when investors lack confidence in future real interest rates and currency purchasing power, assets like gold and silver, which carry no credit risk, often receive additional allocations. It is important to note that the AiCoin Daily previously mentioned figures of "gold at $4,500 and silver at $73," but compared to mainstream market data, these figures are clearly ahead of real-time prices and are likely to belong to predictive values or writing errors, thus should be marked as high-risk information with discrepancies and not included in serious analysis or quantitative models. One of the backgrounds for the current strength of precious metals is the media speculation surrounding Trump being rumored to "run for Federal Reserve Chairman in next year's election," leading the market to speculate that future Federal Reserve policies may emphasize political demands and increase tolerance for inflation, thereby raising the probability of a renewed easing of the monetary environment. However, there is currently a lack of formal nomination documents and authoritative confirmations regarding this personnel arrangement, remaining at the level of speculation, with most institutions viewing it merely as a marginal variable in the interest rate and liquidity game. Some KOLs, such as @Hippo, point out that the key variables for BTC and ETH currently still lie in Federal Reserve expectations and global liquidity: in a scenario where gold and silver are strengthening, if the logic of declining interest rates and easing funds is further validated, crypto assets may resonate with precious metals in "jointly hedging against fiat currency depreciation"; conversely, if actual monetary conditions tighten and nominal interest rates remain high, a divergence pattern may emerge where "gold is relatively resilient, while crypto assets are more elastic but exhibit greater volatility." The rotation between crypto and precious metals essentially revolves around the risk-return trade-off of "non-sovereign credit assets," rather than a simple substitution of one for the other.
Sentiment and Speculation
From the perspective of sentiment, the community shows a clear FOMO tendency towards the Ethereum 2026 upgrade path, as well as the news of both gold and silver reaching new highs: for some participants, the 200 million gas limit and ZK verification support brought by Glamsterdam and Heze-Bogota mean that Ethereum is expected to regain its voice in the scaling race, while gold breaking $4,400 per ounce is seen as a signal of "weakening fiat currency credit." The combination of these two factors has sparked imaginations of a "new bull market." In contrast, regarding the rumors of Trump being "rumored to run for Federal Reserve Chairman" and the suspected new round of USDC Treasury minting, the community overall exhibits stronger skepticism and caution: many observers realize that such news has not yet received official confirmation or complete on-chain evidence support, and its market impact is more reflected in expectations and sentiment rather than immediately changing the flow of funds. AiCoin's real-time monitoring and multiple whale trading records indicate that bullish sentiment has shown clear signs of retreat in the short term, with "profitable long whales" continuously reducing their BTC and ETH long positions and reversing to open shorts, indicating that the dominant market is shifting towards a defensive or even right-side short bias in the medium to short term. If we place the expectations for technical upgrades, institutional accumulation, whale short-term speculation, and macro risk aversion sentiment within the same framework, we can roughly delineate two logical camps: one is a medium to long-term bullish logic anchored in the 2026 technical route, RWA, and institutional allocation, believing that ETH's weight in multi-asset portfolios will increase; the other revolves around macro uncertainty, high leverage structures, and tactical trading by whales, focusing more on position safety and volatility profits. The current environment is characterized by "dense expectations but long verification cycles": the key outcomes of Ethereum upgrades, macro policies, personnel arrangements, and institutional layouts are concentrated in the coming seasons or even years, while current prices must react in advance amid uncertain information, placing higher demands on investors' time dimension management and position rhythm.
Future Market Projections
Looking ahead to the market, without speculating on specific timelines and target prices, we can engage in conditional thinking: If Ethereum proceeds with the planned upgrades of Glamsterdam and Heze-Bogota around 2026, successfully raising the gas limit to the 200 million level and natively supporting efficient ZK verification, and if institutions like Bitmine and BlackRock continue the net accumulation trend for ETH and BTC observed over the past year, then Ethereum's structural position in the public chain landscape and multi-asset allocation system is likely to be solidified—transitioning from a "single public chain token" to a "core settlement and collateral asset," with RWA and DeFi scenarios potentially bringing more stable on-chain demand and fee capture.
On the macro liquidity front, there are also divergent paths: if future Federal Reserve policy leans dovish, with increased tolerance for inflation and real interest rates remaining low or negative, gold and crypto assets as "non-sovereign assets" may experience a phase of resonant upward movement; conversely, if policy shifts towards a hawkish stance, maintaining high nominal interest rates to suppress inflation, gold may still have some support due to its safe-haven properties, while crypto assets, being more volatile and sensitive to funding costs, may undergo more severe valuation repricing.
In the shorter term, the presence of whales increasing their short positions and high leverage means that price volatility and potential liquidation risks should not be overlooked: addresses like "profitable long whales," when concentrating on adding shorts or closing longs at key price levels, often amplify the spread and liquidation chains, creating a dual amplification effect of "squeezing upwards and killing longs downwards" for smaller leveraged positions. Therefore, for participants, medium to long-term variables should focus on technical routes and institutional behaviors, while short-term risks stem from leverage structures and whale speculation.
From an operational perspective, a more feasible path is to remain data-driven: continuously tracking on-chain large fund flows, ETH upgrade progress, and key macro data (such as inflation, employment, and Federal Reserve meetings) through tools like AiCoin, rather than overly relying on a single KOL's high target price predictions or unverified rumors, using verifiable information to calibrate positions and rhythms, rather than substituting narrative sentiment for risk control.
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