The early Ethereum ICO address suddenly transferred all its chips after nearly 10 years of dormancy. Coupled with the transfer of BTC from the Mentougou address and the expiration of $23.6 billion in options, the market is concentrating on digesting multiple narratives of "potential selling pressure" within the same time window. The divergence between price and funding data is worth re-examining. Current on-chain data shows that this transfer of approximately 2,000 ETH is merely a migration from an old address to a new one, with no clear flow to exchanges or DeFi, indicating that "transfer ≠ immediate sell-off."

Core of the Event

The early Ethereum ICO address 0x3495 has reappeared on-chain after nearly 10 years of dormancy. According to Whale Alert and Lookonchain data, this address invested about $620 to participate in the Ethereum crowdfunding in 2015, acquiring 2,000 ETH, which is now valued at approximately $5.85 million, referred to by The Block Beats as "one of the highest return cases in Ethereum's history." Based on this data, the paper return on this investment is approximately 9,435 times, placing it at an extreme tail level among all publicly visible early Ethereum ICO chips.

On-chain behavior shows that this action was very straightforward: address 0x3495 transferred all 2,000 ETH at once to a new wallet address, without splitting the transfer, taking multiple hops, or any obvious cross-chain operations. As of the time of writing, the on-chain explorer only shows that the funds have completed the migration from "old address → new address," with no further verifiable records of flow to centralized exchange marked addresses or common DeFi contracts. Lookonchain also pointed out that the new wallet is currently in a holding state.

On social media, this event was quickly packaged into the topic of "the awakening of early Ethereum whales," with discussions around "how to cash in millions of dollars in paper profits" and "whether it will bring selling pressure" noticeably heating up. However, based on observable facts on-chain, the only thing that can be confirmed at this point is that the early chips have been activated and migrated, while selling remains at the hypothetical level.

Incentive Analysis

From a news perspective, the core driver of this attention is not the complex on-chain path, but the extreme return itself: the 2,000 ETH acquired for about $620 in 2015 now has a paper value of about $5.85 million. This "9,435 times" figure has been rapidly amplified through the simultaneous dissemination by data and media accounts such as BlockBeats, Whale Alert, and Lookonchain. For most investors still facing a high volatility environment, such extreme return cases from early ICOs naturally possess topicality and can easily be misinterpreted as a kind of "cycle top cashing signal."

On the funding side, current on-chain data only shows changes in chip positions, with no funds flowing from the new address to marked addresses of mainstream exchanges, nor any clear path of funds being split and routed to decentralized exchange contracts. This "only migrating, not entering the market" state is more akin to an account management or security migration operation rather than a selling process that has entered the secondary market.

On the emotional level, the market's instinctive reaction to the "awakening of early chips" is to automatically equate it with potential selling pressure. Some social discussions directly equate "migration" with "selling" without further on-chain evidence, which relates to empirical concerns following multiple whale address transfer events in recent years. However, based on current price fluctuations and trading volume performance, there has yet to be any abnormal volatility matching a concentrated sell-off of millions of dollars, indicating that the actual impact on funding may be far lower than the psychological impact in social narratives.

Deep Logic

To understand the market implications of this event, it is necessary to expand the perspective from a single address to a larger time and asset dimension. Within the same time window, the market is also focusing on two sets of data related to "potential selling pressure": first, the nominal amount of Bitcoin options expiring this Friday is approximately $23.6 billion (according to The Block Beats data); second, the recent transfer of about 1,300 BTC from Mentougou-related addresses as noted by Arkham.

The expiration of $23.6 billion in BTC options means that at a fixed point in time, a large number of derivative positions linked to the price will face settlement or rollover choices. Historical experience shows that around similar-sized expiration windows, implied volatility often rises, and the spot and contract markets become more sensitive in the short term, with price fluctuation ranges being actively amplified by market expectations. This volatility premium is essentially a pre-pricing of uncertainty, rather than a single bearish or bullish signal.

The recent transfer of about 1,300 BTC from Mentougou-related addresses represents another type of "historical chip flow." Although it is uncertain whether and when these chips will enter the spot selling path, the market often preemptively reserves risk premiums for such possibilities in derivative and futures structures, for example, by widening term price spreads, adjusting hedge positions, or changing long-short leverage ratios.

In this macro context, the awakening of the early Ethereum ICO address is layered into a time window where "potential selling pressure signals are densely appearing." Multiple events being discussed simultaneously reinforce the market narrative of "concentrated selling pressure," but based on current on-chain flows and exchange data, the portion that has truly converted into real sell orders remains limited. In other words, the concentration of narratives does not necessarily equate to the concentration of funding flows.

Bull-Bear Game

Surrounding this event, there is a clear divergence in the explanatory paths of bulls and bears. From the bull perspective, the 0x3495 address has merely completed an operation on the level of chip management: an early ICO participant, after holding for nearly 10 years, has migrated all 2,000 ETH from the old address to the new one for security or asset planning reasons, which does not imply an immediate sell-off. Bulls would also emphasize that the Ethereum ecosystem has significantly expanded over the past few years, and a single transaction of approximately $5.85 million worth of ETH is merely a "absorbable level" disturbance for current overall liquidity.

The bear perspective, on the other hand, focuses more on the motivations behind the behavior: with a paper return rate of 9,435 times and a total market value of about $5.85 million, any "awakening" is interpreted as a signal of increasing cashing pressure. Bears would further associate this event with the Mentougou BTC transfer and the expiration of $23.6 billion in BTC options, constructing a macro narrative of "historical chips and derivative selling pressure resonance," using it as a reason for reducing positions or shorting.

This divergence has also produced ripple effects in the broader market. On one hand, the event has heightened market sensitivity to "on-chain whale movements," making monitoring early address behaviors a routine indicator for more institutional strategies; on the other hand, it reminds participants to distinguish between "emotion-driven risk-averse behavior" and "data-supported risk control decisions." For following funds, the key is not how many "awakening" news items are seen, but whether there are quantifiable and verifiable net inflows to exchanges or address-layer migration behaviors following these news items.

Market Carrying Capacity and HTX Sample

Even if the potential sell-off from the 0x3495 address is viewed as an extreme scenario, its marginal impact needs to be measured against the current market liquidity structure. An important reference is the asset reserves and market share changes of some centralized exchanges in 2025, with Huobi HTX being a typical sample.

According to disclosed data from the same period, HTX's USDT reserves grew from about $695 million in January to about $1.765 billion in December, with an annual increase of about 150%; at the same time, its market share increased by about 2.06 percentage points (CoinDesk data). Higher USDT reserves and larger market share mean that its ability to match and absorb large orders has significantly strengthened over the year, reflecting that the overall market's liquidity "base" is thickening.

Considering the average daily spot trading volume of ETH on mainstream exchanges, the 2,000 ETH corresponds to only a few million dollars, generally accounting for a small proportion of daily trading volume. In this volume comparison, even if this chip chooses to sell in the secondary market in the future, it is more likely to be dispersed rather than triggering systemic volatility from a single event. It is important to emphasize that this discussion is based on scenario simulations of scale and does not presuppose that the 0x3495 address will necessarily sell or limit the specific trading paths it may use in the future.

From a more macro perspective, the growth of asset reserves in exchanges like HTX, combined with the maturation of more market-making institutions and hedging tools, has reduced the structural impact of single-point whale behavior on the overall market. The common pattern of "some address transfer → price volatility" seen in early cycles is being smoothed out by thicker order books and more complex derivative structures.

Structural Perspective

If this event is only viewed as a "turning $620 into $5.85 million" rags-to-riches story, important information is overlooked. What deserves more attention is the statistical position of such extreme return cases and the tension between them and the current market structure. The $620 that yields a 9,435 times paper return is essentially the result of early high-risk pricing combined with long-term holding, making it difficult for participants entering the market today to replicate as an investment sample.

Looking back historically, during phases like 2017/2018 and 2021/2022, the awakening of whale addresses was often more easily tied to dramatic price fluctuations. On one hand, the total market capitalization and depth at that time were smaller, and concentrated sell-offs of chips worth millions of dollars were sufficient to create a noticeable impact on the order book; on the other hand, the derivatives market was not mature, and the lack of hedging tools amplified the marginal impact of spot flows on prices.

However, in the context of 2025, the situation has changed. On one hand, the overall market capitalization and liquidity have significantly increased, with more institutional market makers and quantitative funds providing thicker buy and sell orders; on the other hand, the proliferation of futures, options, and other derivatives means that "whale sell-off expectations" can be partially digested through derivative structures before actual spot selling pressure appears. This indicates that the explanatory power of single address behavior on market trends is decreasing, and what truly matters is how this behavior is embedded within a broader funding structure and risk pricing system.

From the perspective of the dislocation between emotion and data, social media narratives often run ahead of funding: first, labels like "awakening" and "selling pressure" appear, and then they seek or wait for verification from on-chain and order book data. This event provides a typical sample—without clear evidence of exchange inflows, emotions have already completed pre-pricing, while prices and on-chain data appear relatively restrained. This dislocation is becoming a norm in mature markets.

Outlook and Key Points of Attention

Integrating on-chain behavior, macro events, and exchange reserves across several dimensions, the awakening of the 0x3495 address appears more like a litmus test for the current market maturity rather than a "single switch" determining the direction of the market. As of now, the confirmed fact is that 2,000 ETH has migrated from an early ICO address to a new address, with no clear verifiable selling path emerging, and this behavior alone is insufficient to constitute systemic risk.

In the coming time, for participants who wish to make decisions based on data rather than emotion, there are several dimensions worth continuously tracking: first, whether funds flow from the new address to marked addresses of mainstream exchanges or large DeFi protocols; second, the price fluctuations, trading volume, and funding rate changes of ETH and BTC around the expiration of approximately $23.6 billion in BTC options this week; third, the dynamic adjustments in asset reserves and order book depth of major exchanges, including HTX, in USDT and other assets.

If more early chips gradually enter circulation in the future, their marginal impact on the market will depend more on whether the overall liquidity and derivative structure can continue to absorb this kind of "historical chip noise." Correspondingly, a more reasonable approach at the strategic level is to incorporate indicators such as whale address monitoring, exchange net flows, and options position structures into the same risk control framework, rather than treating every awakening as a "black swan."

Join our community to discuss and grow stronger together!
Official Telegram community: https://t.me/aicoincn
AiCoin Chinese Twitter: https://x.com/AiCoinzh

OKX benefits group: https://aicoin.com/link/chat?cid=l61eM4owQ
Binance benefits group: https://aicoin.com/link/chat?cid=ynr7d1P6Z

免责声明：本文章仅代表作者个人观点，不代表本平台的立场和观点。本文章仅供信息分享，不构成对任何人的任何投资建议。用户与作者之间的任何争议，与本平台无关。如网页中刊载的文章或图片涉及侵权，请提供相关的权利证明和身份证明发送邮件到support@aicoin.com，本平台相关工作人员将会进行核查。