As of December 24, 2025, 19:06, the 49th phase of the Gate contract points airdrop is open to TRX and XPIN, with two prize pools: consuming 10 points to receive 2000 XPIN, and consuming 20 points to receive 100 TRX. Based on the reported highest price of TRX at $0.28449 and XPIN at $0.0028294 within 24 hours, the theoretical value of a single number is close to $29. This round of activities is launched during the peak marketing period at the end of the year, combining the contract points mechanism with the volatility characteristics of small-cap tokens, concentrating funds, emotions, and chips for a short window of speculative play.
Core of the Event
Gate recently launched the 49th phase of the contract points airdrop activity, with clear rules: accounts with points of 60 or more can consume 10 points to receive 2000 XPIN; accounts with points of 120 or more can consume 20 points to receive 100 TRX, with the prize pool operating on a first-come, first-served basis. On December 24, 2025, at 8:00 PM UTC+8, the highest price of TRX in 24 hours was reported at $0.28449, corresponding to a market value of approximately $26.81 billion, while the highest price of XPIN in 24 hours was $0.0028294, with a market value of about $4.436 million. These two types of assets, one large and one small, are bundled in the same phase of the points airdrop, creating a differentiated risk-return structure.
According to the reported prices, exchanging 20 points for 100 TRX has a theoretical value of about $28.449; exchanging 10 points for 2000 XPIN has a theoretical value of about $5.6588. The combined prize pools form the market's commonly referenced "single number close to $29" return anchor. However, since the airdrop value highly depends on the prices of TRX and XPIN at different points in time, and the actual arrival price may significantly deviate from the 24-hour highest price, this "close to $29" can only be regarded as a theoretical upper limit calculation under a specific price snapshot, rather than a guaranteed return.
From the activity design perspective, Gate connects the internal scoring system of contract points with the two different market cap assets TRX and XPIN, binding the activity level of contract trading, platform point consumption, and a single airdrop event into a closed loop in the short term.
Incentive Analysis: News, Funds, and Emotions
On the news front, the key information for this airdrop comes from Gate and industry media reports: first, the rules are simple—clearly setting participation thresholds of "≥60 points/≥120 points" and deduction standards of "10 points/20 points"; second, the return anchor is intuitive—media headlines directly highlight "single number return close to $29," quantifying theoretical value into a disseminable number; third, the expectation continues—KOLs and media simultaneously mention the upcoming 50th phase ANIME universal airdrop and jersey lottery, adding a narrative of "more benefits to come" to the current activity. The overall news structure focuses on reward scale, thresholds, and continuous activities, with less emphasis on the total prize pool, historical winning distribution, and price volatility risks.
On the funding side, contract points themselves originate from users' contract trading activities on Gate, essentially a "return-gamified" arrangement for contract fees and potential leverage risks. Users accumulate points through trading and then consume points to exchange for TRX/XPIN airdrops. The platform uses expected liquidatable token rewards to guide funds into the high-frequency, leveraged contract layer first, and then back to the spot token layer through airdrops. Within the same time window, Gate also launched CRO staking products, with announcements showing a current reference annual yield of about 6.65%, a minimum investment of 20 CRO, and a redemption period referencing on-chain mechanisms of about D+29 days. These on-chain earning products encourage some funds to be long-term locked within the platform ecosystem, forming a "combination of long and short" funding arrangement alongside short-term point airdrops.
On the emotional front, media like Odaily highlight "single number return close to $29" in their headlines, while KOLs describe other activities as "sharing 337,500 WET tokens" and "low-cost understanding of projects," reinforcing the mental anchoring of "low threshold, immediate return." The 49th phase of the points airdrop adopts a first-come, first-served model, with some users reporting that the prize pool was quickly exhausted after accelerated point consumption. This "first come, first served" feedback spreads through communities, amplifying FOMO (fear of missing out) emotions. The news highlights return numbers, the funding side guides point conversion, and the emotional side reinforces the purchasing mentality, collectively boosting short-term participation density and expected premiums for airdrop chips.
Deep Logic: Platform Incentives and Ecological Linkage
To understand the deep logic of this activity, it needs to be observed within the overall operational rhythm of Gate at the end of the year. In mid to late December, the platform intensively releases contract points airdrops (such as this TRX/XPIN 49th phase and the upcoming 50th phase ANIME), while also launching CRO staking, on-chain earning, and Gate Fun's AI-generated token images and social media information modification features. Structurally, this forms an integrated operational chain around "trading—points—airdrop—staking—creating new tokens."
In this chain, contract points are the key intermediary connecting high-frequency contract trading and airdrop rewards; airdrop tokens play the role of activating spot trading and increasing the turnover rate of individual assets; CRO staking and other on-chain earning products are responsible for locking some funds within the platform for the long term; and Gate Fun lowers the threshold for token issuance and brand packaging, adding more long-tail speculative targets to the platform. The combination of multiple products effectively enhances the turnover frequency and retention time of platform funds.
TRX and XPIN occupy different positions in this logic. TRX, as a large-cap public chain asset with a market value of about $26.81 billion, experiences only slight fluctuations with a daily highest price of $0.28449, which is relatively mild within its overall size. Activities on a single exchange usually cannot significantly shake its long-term price structure. XPIN, with a current market value of about $4.436 million, is much smaller than TRX. Airdrop chips of the same scale, buy and sell orders, and emotional fluctuations can often cause more significant price and depth changes on XPIN.
Gate utilizes the "brand credibility" brought by the high market cap mainstream asset TRX and the high elasticity of small-cap tokens like XPIN, bundling them in the same phase of the points airdrop, stabilizing the mindset of large market users while providing high-volatility targets for short-term funds.
Bull-Bear Game: Incentive Stories and Chip Realities
From the bull perspective, the logic of this round of activities is relatively straightforward. The platform rewards existing contract users with contract points airdrops while stimulating new users to obtain points through trading, amplifying the activity of both the contract and spot markets in the short term. Based on reported prices, the theoretical value of 100 TRX obtained by exchanging 20 points is close to $30, combined with the theoretical value of several dollars from 2000 XPIN obtained by exchanging 10 points, making the expected return from "points → airdrop" quite attractive on paper. The continuous 49th phase and the upcoming 50th phase ANIME universal airdrop and jersey lottery create a psychological expectation for users that "participating in the points ecosystem will continuously yield activities," which helps elevate the implicit value of contract points in users' minds, thus supporting more frequent contract trading behavior.
On the asset level, bulls will emphasize two points: first, for TRX, as one of the leading trading platforms, Gate's launch of contract points airdrops is expected to enhance the trading volume and attention of TRX on the platform in the short term, forming additional buying pressure; second, for XPIN, as a mid-small cap token with a market value of about $4.436 million, concentrated airdrop events can quickly focus market attention, creating "story soil" for price fluctuations under conditions of short-term supply-demand imbalance, attracting speculative funds seeking high volatility opportunities.
The bear perspective, however, offers a contrasting interpretation of the same structure. First, contract points are not cost-free assets; obtaining points requires incurring fees and market volatility risks through contract trading, and some users may also face margin calls and liquidation risks from leveraged trading. Ignoring the front-end risk costs while only considering the theoretical anchor of "single number about $29" may lead participants to misjudge the actual risk-return ratio. Second, from the chip perspective, airdrops are one-time distributions, and the total prize pool is limited. The first-come, first-served nature means that large active accounts are more likely to claim rewards before the pool is exhausted, while smaller users with limited points may face the outcome of "not necessarily getting high-value pools after consuming points."
For TRX/XPIN, the bears also focus on different aspects. TRX's large size means that even with Gate's activities driving it, the overall change in circulating chips and secondary market trading volume remains relatively limited; for XPIN, a small-cap asset with a market value of several tens of millions of dollars, large-scale airdrop releases mean a short-term increase in circulating chips. If participants concentrate on selling after claiming, it is easy to see a typical path of "spike—cash out—retrace." Some users reported that the prize pool was quickly exhausted after launch, suggesting the possibility of chips concentrating in the hands of high-point, high-activity accounts, which would further increase the concentration of XPIN airdrop chips, enhancing the ability of a single entity or small group to influence prices.
The core of the bull-bear divergence lies in whether the benefits of activating trading and enhancing the perceived value of points through airdrop can offset the selling pressure brought by airdrop chips when realized in the secondary market and the impact on the earnings experience of smaller users.
Outlook: Conditional Paths for TRX, XPIN, and the Gate Ecosystem
From the perspective of TRX, the activity itself seems more like a marginal catalyst for TRX trading and activity within the Gate platform, rather than a decisive variable influencing its long-term trend. If there is a lack of hard catalysts from the Tron ecosystem itself in the future (such as on-chain upgrades, major collaborations, etc.), the impact of this points airdrop on TRX's overall price is likely limited to short-term, localized increases in trading volume, with prices more likely to follow overall market trends and macro risk preferences. Only when Gate's activities are combined with external positive factors and form fund linkages between different exchanges might TRX experience relatively significant phase excess volatility compared to the overall market.
The short to medium-term path for XPIN, on the other hand, relies more on chip distribution and subsequent trading volume. If the prize pool is quickly exhausted by a few high-point accounts, and these accounts tend to concentrate on cashing out in the secondary market, it could lead to a long upper shadow or large bearish candle after the activity ends, with emotions shifting rapidly from FOMO to wait-and-see or even pessimism; if participating addresses are more dispersed, and there is new funding to take over or participate in long-term project development after the airdrop, XPIN may enter a high-volatility, high-turnover fluctuation range rather than a one-way decline. Conversely, if emotions retreat quickly and trading volume shrinks rapidly, XPIN may enter a prolonged period of stagnation after a round of high volatility.
For the Gate platform ecosystem, the reputation and actual user experience of the 49th phase points airdrop will directly affect the marginal effects of subsequent points activities. If most participants believe that the activity's "cost-performance ratio" is acceptable within their risk tolerance, the implicit value of contract points will be elevated, leaving room for future enthusiasm in point acquisition and consumption; if a large number of users report "not being able to claim from the prize pool" or "actual returns differ too much from promotional anchors," contract points may face expectations of depreciation, requiring subsequent activities to repair expectations by increasing prize pool sizes, optimizing distribution rules, or lowering participation thresholds.
For investors, a more prudent approach is to view points airdrops as a one-time, highly random additional cash flow rather than a source of long-term returns, and to clearly distinguish between "participation in gameplay" (mainly for experience and small-scale speculation) and "asset allocation" (focusing on liquidity, volatility, and fundamentals) before participating, while also considering the regulatory requirements for contracts, staking, and airdrop products in their respective regions for careful decision-making.
In the near future, the main observation indicators for TRX will be whether the overall network (not just Gate) trading volume and on-chain activity experience marginal increases due to this activity; for XPIN, it will be crucial to monitor the turnover rate, buy-sell depth, and large address behavior in the days following the end of the airdrop. For Gate, whether it can maintain ecological vitality through combinations of points, airdrops, staking, and new features without significantly sacrificing user experience will determine its relative position in the competitive landscape of trading platforms.
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