Let's talk about the reasons for the negative premium of USDT against the Chinese Yuan.

In fact, there are three main reasons why the premium of USDT against the Chinese Yuan is higher than that of USD against the Chinese Yuan:

First: From a macro perspective, the Chinese Yuan has been strongly appreciating against the US Dollar. Since the second half of 2025, the Yuan has continued to strengthen, with the official midpoint and spot exchange rates falling below 7.05, further approaching 7.03 in late December. Reasons include the continuation of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut cycle, a weakening US Dollar index, and improved economic data from China. Holding USDT is equivalent to indirectly holding US Dollar assets, which results in exchange rate losses in the context of Yuan appreciation.

In other words, the market itself anticipates that the Yuan will continue to strengthen, leading to some shifts in the exchange rate, but this is not the main reason; it can only be considered a minor secondary reason.

Second: China's regulatory policies have tightened significantly. In early December 2025, the central bank and thirteen other departments jointly issued a document to strengthen the crackdown on virtual currency trading and speculation, clearly bringing stablecoins (such as USDT) under regulatory scrutiny, focusing on illegal cross-border capital flows, money laundering, and underground banking activities using USDT.

This has led many over-the-counter merchants and traders to suspend or reduce operations, tightening market liquidity. Some holders are worried about account freezes or regulatory risks and are eager to sell USDT for Chinese Yuan, resulting in increased supply and sharply reduced demand, which directly lowers P2P prices.

Historically, every regulatory upgrade in China (such as the ban in 2021) has led to a negative premium for USDT in the over-the-counter market, and this time the measures are even stronger, so the deviation of the USDT to Chinese Yuan exchange rate will be greater.

Third: The overall cryptocurrency market is experiencing turbulence, coupled with negative regulatory news, leading retail investors and institutions to reduce their demand for USDT. Some investors in mainland China, in order to avoid risks, hope to quickly offload their USDT, creating a negative premium cycle similar to the current situation in China's real estate market.

Moreover, I believe that the current price of USDT against the Chinese Yuan is not even at its lowest; the USD to Chinese Yuan exchange rate could potentially fall below 6.8, let alone the premium of USDT against the Chinese Yuan.

The decline in the premium of USDT against the Chinese Yuan is not merely an exchange rate issue, but rather a result of the "functional disappearance" of USDT within the Chinese system after regulatory upgrades. When a tool only carries risks and no longer provides efficiency, a discount is a reasonable pricing, and this process is difficult to reverse quickly.

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