In a "world that is no longer reliable," how do we understand the position of safe assets and R2?

I. The real problems in the market only begin when macro data starts to distort

In November, the U.S. seasonally unadjusted CPI recorded a year-on-year increase of 2.7%, significantly lower than the previous value of 3.0% and the market expectation of 3.1%.

On the surface, this is an "ideal data set indicating a significant drop in inflation and the opening of room for interest rate cuts."

But the problem is: this is not a data set that can be unconditionally trusted.

On December 19, the statement from New York Fed President and FOMC permanent voter John Williams has already provided a clear hint: the November CPI year-on-year increase of 2.7% was influenced by "technical factors," and the current policy interest rate of 3.5%–3.75% is in a favorable position, with no need to rush for further rate cuts; we need to wait for December data to verify the true trend of inflation.

This is a very typical and important signal, not denying the data itself, but denying its guiding significance for the policy path.

Against the backdrop of the U.S. government shutdown in October, using data from earlier months to "infer" the missing interval and assuming zero growth carries a strong technical assumption. This kind of handling may smooth the inflation path in the short term, but it is hard to convince:

• Officials within the Federal Reserve who insist on independent judgment
• Even harder to convince market participants who truly understand the structure of inflation

What does this mean?

When macro data is technically "modified," policies will become more cautious. In the absence of sufficiently credible verification, maintaining interest rates unchanged is often the more probable choice.

The macro environment has not become simpler; it has simply become more unreliable.

II. Geopolitical risks have re-emerged as "inflation variables," no longer just noise

If data distortion affects the credibility of policy judgment, then geopolitical conflicts affect the very structure of inflation itself.

Recently, the U.S. has continued to intensify its blockade against Venezuela, having seized a third tanker carrying Venezuelan crude oil, even though the tanker flies the flag of a Panamanian state-owned enterprise. This action has substantially reduced Venezuela's outbound shipping and has begun to impact its financial situation.

The U.S. intention is not complex: to besiege the Maduro regime through sustained financial pressure.

However, at the same time, the market is reassessing another, more dangerous risk line: multiple sources indicate that Israel is evaluating the possibility of striking Iran again, citing that Iran's monthly missile production may have reached 3,000.

In the last round of conflict between Israel and Iran, Iran's large-scale missile counterattack significantly breached Israel's air defense system, ultimately forcing the U.S. to intervene directly and use B-2 bombers to strike Iranian nuclear facilities, temporarily calming the conflict.

If this time Israel chooses to launch a surprise attack without declaration, Iran will likely respond with high-intensity missile strikes. Even if its stockpile has decreased compared to the last time, it is still sufficient to inflict real damage on Israel, thereby forcing the U.S. to intervene deeply once again.

This will trigger a series of chain reactions:

• The Middle East remains the core area of the petrodollar system
• Tensions in the Strait of Hormuz, the Red Sea, and the Suez Canal will significantly rise
• Even under the macro narrative of "oversupply," oil prices may still rebound sharply
• Imported inflation will re-enter the global price system, affecting the U.S. inflation path

In this environment, the intensity of the U.S. blockade against Venezuela may be forced to adjust, and the geopolitical landscape will enter a new state of uncertainty.

The macro world is shifting from algorithm-driven optimistic expectations back to a risk-driven reality structure.

III. In such an environment, what constitutes a truly "valid" return?

When the credibility of data declines, geopolitical risks return, and the path of monetary policy is highly uncertain, the core issues of market concern have changed.

It is no longer: "Can we cut rates one more time?"

But rather:

• Which returns do not depend on policy direction
• Which cash flows do not depend on secondary market liquidity
• Which assets remain valid in a high-interest + high-uncertainty environment

The answers are not new; they have long existed in the real world:

• Short-duration U.S. Treasury bonds
• Credit assets with clear cash flow paths
• Trade and consumer finance assets with clear structures and defined terms

What is truly scarce is not these assets themselves, but how to bring them onto the chain in a transparent, verifiable, and executable manner.

IV. The role of R2: not to predict the world, but to adapt to it

What R2 does is provide a more certain return structure in a phase of policy reversals, geopolitical instability, and data distortion:

• Not dependent on whether rate cuts occur
• Not creating illusions of secondary market liquidity
• Not committing to unexplained sources of returns

R2 focuses on returns that already exist in the real world:

• Government bonds and credit assets with clear terms
• Traceable and liquid cash flows
• Return structures that are valid in a high-interest environment

When CPI is technically distorted, when inflation is once again influenced by geopolitical variables, and when monetary policy must act cautiously, the importance of real returns is amplified rather than diminished.

In conclusion: from "betting right once" to "long-term validity"

The macro world is undergoing a critical turning point:

• Data is no longer inherently trustworthy
• Risks are no longer distant
• Policies are no longer one-directional

In such an environment, what truly matters is no longer "betting right once," but rather building a return structure that can hold up under most macro scenarios.

The goal of R2 is not to predict how the world will change, but to ensure: regardless of how the world changes, users are clear about what their funds are doing, where returns come from, and how risks are constrained. This is the truly scarce capability in the next phase.

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