The discussion about the four-year cycle is very interesting. I have always believed that the four-year cycle exists. I previously chatted with friends about this. Let's not talk about the future for now; let's focus on this cycle. Does the cycle in 2024 align with the four-year cycle changes? From the results, it certainly does.

The halving date in 2024 is April 20. The common saying is that a bull market starts within six months to a year after the halving, at least for Bitcoin. From the results, it shows a significant increase starting in November 2024, which is seven months after the halving.

However, as someone who has been around since 2024, how many people saw a bear market before October? From March to October, there was a long seven-month period where $BTC dropped from nearly $74,000 to $49,000, a decline of nearly 34%. Especially when it fell below $50,000 in August, many friends thought it would at least see $30,000.

But in reality, four months later, Bitcoin's price broke $100,000. But does this relate to BTC's halving? I don't think so. Those who have been around since then know that the rise starting at the end of October was mainly due to Trump, and in November, it was even more so because Trump was elected as the first U.S. president to directly support BTC.

So personally, I believe that if we talk about the impact of the four-year halving cycle, I think it no longer exists. However, if we consider the impact of the four-year cycle, I still think it is reasonable. The halving cycle of BTC often corresponds to the U.S. election year. The next halving cycle will likely be around May 2028, which is also the year of the U.S. stock market elections.

Every time there is a U.S. election, it is beneficial for risk markets. Typically, the six months to a year leading up to the election is a peak for risk market increases. Even in 2024, while still in a monetary tightening phase, the U.S. stock market repeatedly broke historical highs, and BTC's most glorious period was also during this time.

Therefore, I personally still believe that the four-year cycle exists, but the driving force is the liquidity surge brought about by the U.S. elections, rather than the four-year halving cycle; it’s just that these two timelines overlap significantly.

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