Bitcoin is in the early stages of a bear market.

Bear markets are sustained downtrends.

Downtrends are lower lows & lower highs.

By definition, downtrends have rallies in order to produce a lower high.

Just look at the 2022 bear market.

The Q1 2022 rally was +45%!

In May 2022, BTC was up +27.5% off the lows at one point.

From June - August 2022, BTC rallied +44%.

And I was there to see how bulls kept pumping "new bull run is coming" narratives during each of those rallies.

Each of those rallies that got faded to new lows.

That's why I'm bearish (based on objective data, with clear invalidation levels around $100k) and simultaneously saying that Bitcoin could rally here.

If that rally comes, as I shared earlier today, then I think we could run to the mid/high $90k's and then get rejected on certain moving averages, like the 55, 100 and/or 200-day EMAs.

Maybe I'll be wrong and we don't get rejected on those EMAs.

If we don't, then I'll gradually become bullish.

I just need to see the evidence first.

Embrace nuance.

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