The same guy who has been bullish for the past 6 weeks in my comment section is telling me that Bitcoin is at weekly support and that I'm going to get people wrecked.

Yeah, okay buddy!

I got bearish at $97k and the max drawdown has been -20% so far.

Anyways, support levels get broken during bear markets.

And we've been in a bear market since the breakdown below the 2-day 200 moving average cloud, which was the line in the sand that I was sharing since February 2025.

There are no secrets in my analysis.

I always tell you IN ADVANCE what will change my outlook.

So when those levels get triggered, it's easy for me to change.

What have I been saying since the breakdown?

If you want me to be bullish again, we need to see Bitcoin get back above the moving averages (and most notably, the 2-day 200 moving average cloud).

Until then, I'm going to believe that we're in a downtrend.

Because the data shows that Bitcoin is in a downtrend on all relevant cycle timeframes, despite being in an cross-cycle uptrend.

That's why I think Bitcoin is going to $1M+ over the long run, amongst many other reasons... but I can't let that long-term outlook detract from the short & medium-term data that all points to BTC being in a downtrend.

There will be a time to be bullish... but right here, right now, is premature if you want to use data to shape your outlook. Because the weight of the evidence points to bearish dynamics.

And that's okay.

Markets aren't up only.

Lock in, embrace nuance, and good luck.

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