Written by: Charlie Little Sun
In 2025, when looking back at human history in the future, it may be seen as a watershed year for the mainstreaming of cryptocurrency.
This year, we not only have new narratives to tell, but also mature business models to scale, and legal regulations recognized by the mainstream market to legitimize the industry.
Structured ETFs and DATs, regulated dollar (stablecoins, tokenized deposits), regulated institutions (Wall Street), secondary markets themselves (Nasdaq), and even the White House and Capitol Hill — all are making a forward-looking judgment: the benefits of moving traditional finance and business onto the crypto track are worth the operational and compliance risks we previously worried about.
If 2024 is the year of the "Return of the Crypto King" (arguably a "king-maker," in some sense a key factor in Trump's election), then 2025 is undoubtedly the year of "Mainstreaming of Crypto."
Now, let me discuss the ten most important themes for 2025 in my mind, and — if I had to bet on 2026 — the three macro lines that I believe will truly influence next year's trends.
This article is translated from my original English Substack (you can click "Read the original" to view it), so the language habits and expressions may not be as smooth in Chinese, but I hope everyone understands that it does not affect comprehension.
1. The Shell Game of Crypto Distribution Channels: ETF Pathways, DAT Boom, and Crypto IPOs
In a year seemingly dominated by stablecoins, placing these shell products at the forefront indeed requires some explanation.
My reasoning is: stablecoins change "what people do on-chain," at best being a crypto product that has found PMF (Product-Market Fit); whereas these shells change "who can hold these assets and under what rules," representing the distribution channels of crypto.
Friends who have started businesses know that distribution channels are more important than specific products — because only through distribution channels can products with PMF truly be accepted by the mainstream of the real world.
In the U.S., the SEC lifted the "physical purchase and redemption" of crypto ETFs/ETPs on July 29. This is not just a conceptual change in legal terms; it represents that ETF products track the underlying asset prices more closely, with less friction, and are structured more like ordinary commodity ETFs rather than being a patchwork designed specifically for crypto.
Shortly after, in mid-September, the SEC approved general listing standards — the market naturally saw this as a signal to accelerate: this is not a special approval for a single product, but rather setting up a shelf that can display a whole row of crypto ETFs, which in fact accelerated the process for ETFs of cryptocurrencies other than BTC.
The "shell game" story is not limited to the ETF field.
DAT digital asset corporate treasury has become another distribution channel — using publicly traded company entities rather than fund structures for public market shelling.
Public data shows that Bitcoin-type DAT companies are nearing 200. By the end of 2025, an even more interesting second-order effect will emerge: the market's pricing of "shells" itself will begin to rationalize, premiums will be compressed, and when sentiment cools, mNAV will lead to pressure.
Then comes the true meaning of shelling: the IPO public market has restarted.
Circle went public in August (ticker CRCL), which is not just a milestone for Circle but also a stamp of approval from Wall Street for the "stablecoin" sector as a legitimate business.
Kraken chose to file confidentially, aiming to go public before the 2026 political cycle.
In Hong Kong, HashKey completed its IPO in December, further solidifying its position as a "compliance gateway to Asia."
The so-called "mainstreaming" in the real world is not just about more discussions and hype, but about distribution channels becoming more compliant, more numerous, and larger in scale — a moment the crypto circle has been anticipating for years.
2. Stablecoins Everywhere: PMF, White Label Issuers, and "New Dollar Species"
Whether calculated by actual usage or by influence in public opinion, the protagonist of 2025 will undoubtedly be stablecoins.
They have become the default dollar interface in the crypto system, and even more broadly in the fintech sector. Moreover, the entire tech stack is being seriously productized by mainstream players.
Stripe is the clearest signal.
From a team structure perspective, this year it completed the acquisition of Bridge, enhancing its stablecoin orchestration capabilities; acquired Privy, integrating embedded wallets into its system; and brought in the Valora team to enhance the C-end crypto product experience.
From a product matrix perspective, it has directly embedded stablecoin payments into the Optimized Checkout Suite, making stablecoin account capabilities the default option. This is not just a PR stunt by fintech and crypto, but a company that truly treats stablecoins as a fundamental product logic, betting that the future dollar stack will be programmable.
At the same time, some "new dollar species" are proving that there is still design space within the term "stable."
For example, Ethena's USDe, regardless of whether you like its risk model, has indeed reached a "systemically important" scale, with a peak supply close to $150 billion.
Hyperliquid not only reigns in perpetual contracts but has also made stablecoins part of its platform strategy through USDH, introducing issuer bidding and directing a great show on X, attracting almost all white-label stablecoin issuers.
The underlying logic behind these phenomena is that stablecoins have become the valuation unit and transaction medium for the internet's cross-border balance sheets.
And it is this established fact that has led policymakers and banks to no longer turn a blind eye.
3. Policymakers' 180-Degree Turn: Hong Kong, GENIUS, and the SEC's New Script
2025 is the year when international financial market crypto policies shift from "total denial" to "full embrace."
Hong Kong has moved from a "regulatory sandbox" to a complete system. The Legislative Council passed the "Stablecoin Ordinance" in May, and the Monetary Authority announced that the relevant licensing system officially took effect on August 1. Hong Kong's positioning is not just "crypto-friendly," but strives to become a "compliance bridge" between global capital and the Chinese market.
In the U.S., President Trump signed the GENIUS Act on July 18, establishing a federal framework for payment stablecoins. Regardless of your political stance, the signal sent to the market is clear: stablecoins are no longer seen as guerrilla hacks but as formally recognized financial instruments.
At the same time, the SEC's stance has shifted from the repressive position of former chairman Gary Gensler to strategic leadership. "Project Crypto" has officially launched, seen as the overarching program for digital asset regulation.
Even the Federal Reserve, often criticized for its slow actions, held a "Payment Innovation Conference" in October, attended by many fintech and crypto leaders. The discussions on the panel pointed in one direction: stablecoins are being viewed as true payment infrastructure, rather than alternative options.
4. Tokenized Deposits: The Banks' Counterattack
As stablecoins truly begin to erode payment scenarios, banks will inevitably play their "digital dollar" card — wanting to retain customer relationships, maintain compliance boundaries, and unwilling to give up the profits from deposits.
The most representative case in 2025 is, of course, JPMorgan.
In June, it conducted a POC (JPMD) for a USD deposit token on Coinbase's Base chain, clearly describing it as: a representation of bank deposits mapped onto the public chain within a group of permitted participants.
Tokenized deposits are not "banks issuing stablecoins"; the two are based on different political and economic considerations:
Stablecoin issuers are essentially competing with bank deposits for funds, while tokenized deposits aim to maintain the existing status of deposits.
Stablecoins pursue cross-platform interoperability; tokenized deposits focus on continuing the existing order of their own territory.
Compared to stablecoins as the "fintech version of the dollar," tokenized deposits represent the banking system saying: we can also become programmable, but we will not relinquish our balance sheets and our customer relationships.
5. Everything On-Chain: Tokenized Stocks, RWA, and the Allure of a "24/7 Market"
"Everything on-chain" is no longer just a slogan; in 2025, it has become a tangible product roadmap.
Robinhood opened up tokenized holdings of over 200 U.S. stocks and ETFs to European users, marking the transition of tokenization from traditional financial pilots to the main battlefield of retail distribution.
As tokenized stock exposure becomes possible, collateral, lending, structured products, and even corporate operational behaviors will naturally be attracted to this track.
What follows will certainly be further regulatory improvements — tokenized stocks will force everyone to confront issues like investor protection and rights boundaries that have been vaguely handled.
On the institutional side, tokenization is filling in the "yield layer": combinations of money market funds, commercial paper, real estate, etc., are becoming yield options that stablecoins have failed to provide.
The biggest unlocking in 2025 is not technology, but institutional attitudes — institutions are beginning to view on-chain issuance as a normal distribution option for traditional products, rather than an innovative experiment.
6. The Battle of Payment Networks: CPN vs Global Dollar Network, and the Rise of Native Stablecoin Chains
Stablecoins not only need issuers but also networks — unified standards, compliance collaboration, and distribution partners that can reduce pre-funding and friction.
Circle launched the Circle Payments Network (CPN), positioning it as a compliance-oriented global stablecoin payment coordination layer.
Paxos's Global Dollar Network (USDG) emphasizes "open networks," with Visa and Mastercard directly announcing their integration of multiple stablecoins. Compared to CPN's USDC-based approach, Paxos is betting that the real competition for stablecoins will occur at the network level, rather than through price wars among issuers.
At the same time, a batch of new chains designed by "payment service providers" rather than "public chain idealists" has emerged:
Circle launched Arc, a layer specifically designed for stablecoin financial scenarios;
Tempo, born from the lineage of Stripe + Paradigm, positions itself as "payment-first" infrastructure;
Plasma, backed by Tether, directly promotes itself as a "stablecoin-specific chain."
For fintech operators in 2026, the harsh reality is that distribution is becoming a game between payment networks, and your stablecoin strategy is gradually becoming about choosing sides rather than just who issues the stablecoin.
7. Perpetual DEXs Have Grown Up: Hyperliquid, On-Chain Microstructure, and the Blurring of CEX Boundaries
CEXs were the dominant players in this industry, but in 2025 the story began to transform — even CZ publicly stated that he believes DEX trading volume will eventually surpass that of CEXs.
What is truly changing is not the ideology of centralized vs decentralized, but that "on-chain execution" has found PMF, with the breakthrough being perpetual contracts.
CoinGecko's 2025 report shows that the top ten perpetual DEXs had a trading volume of approximately $1.5 trillion in 2024, a significant year-on-year increase, with Hyperliquid accounting for more than half in Q4.
This is the first time we can confidently say: for a certain segment of mature capital, on-chain venues are no longer "alternative channels," but are becoming the default option.
The response from CEXs has been similar to that of all vested interests: replicating features, lowering fees, and launching product lines that inherently have a "on-chain feel."
Binance's ecosystem around Aster is a case of combining offense and defense — the DEX narrative, CEX distribution, along with a roadmap that integrates the strengths of both.
On the other hand, Hyperliquid's extension to native stablecoins like USDH also demonstrates their ambition: once you win over users, you will want to win their collateral.
The boundaries are rapidly blurring, and the battlefield is no longer simply "on-chain vs off-chain," but rather: risk boundaries, compliance posture, distribution entry points, and — increasingly critical — who controls the margin "dollars" that support the system.
8. Agentic Commerce Truly Takes Root: Payments Enter the Dialogue Box, "Trust" Becomes Infrastructure
The most important development in the intersection of AI and Crypto in 2025 is not "AI agents autonomously trading on-chain," but rather AI agents starting to truly "spend money to buy things."
Stripe and OpenAI have made "completing payments in chat" a reality — through Instant Checkout, the Agentic Commerce Protocol, and Stripe's Agentic Commerce Suite, designing agent channels as a primary distribution interface.
Once the acceptance of "agents can autonomously consume" is recognized as a real need rather than a fanciful idea, the role of crypto shifts from "speculative asset" to "settlement currency between machines."
Therefore, protocols that can support AI at scale become important:
The x402 project promoted by Coinbase attempts to restart HTTP 402, turning it into an internet-level payment primitive;
ERC-8004 supports a framework of "delegation and execution constraints" that minimizes trust as much as possible.
Even Ethereum's year-end Fusaka upgrade can be included in this narrative — it is a foundational infrastructure aimed at "reducing costs and increasing capacity," allowing high-frequency, small-value interactions on-chain (or on Ethereum-protected L2) to no longer be counterintuitive.
For Agentic Commerce, "perfect decentralization" is not a necessity; what is truly needed is: cheap verification, clear constraints, and a track that can still operate smoothly under real traffic.
In terms of geographical distribution: AI + Crypto's agentic commerce will still center around Silicon Valley; while the development of stablecoins and RWA increasingly resembles a New York story.
9. Prediction Markets: Crypto-Native Polymarket Brings Information On-Chain
The prediction market truly broke out during the 2024 U.S. elections — that week not only brought an unprecedented volume of users but also allowed everyone to experience "odds themselves as a product" on an internet scale for the first time.
By the end of 2025, this sector continues to expand, with the key being that the attention it attracts has evolved into a "capital formation" story.
Polymarket and Kalshi have set new trading volume records, even surpassing those during the election period.
Kalshi raised $1 billion at a valuation of $11 billion; Polymarket welcomed a "traditional giant's stamp of approval" moment — the parent company of the New York Stock Exchange, ICE, announced a strategic investment of up to $2 billion, valuing it at approximately $8 billion.
From a crypto perspective, Polymarket, a global consumer information market platform, is fundamentally crypto-native in its architecture — trading and clearing using USDC on Polygon. As this product grows, it will naturally pull the stablecoin track and L2 throughput into the mainstream cycle.
The breakout of these two leading companies has fostered ecosystem growth and has led various new players to directly challenge existing platforms.
The "information market / attention market" has become a new asset class, and crypto has reason to become the infrastructure for this global market belonging to the next generation of young people.
10. October Stress Test: New Highs, Retracements, and Narrative Tax
No matter how good a year is, there will be moments of pullback and questioning. This moment in 2025 occurred in October.
Bitcoin surged above $126,000 in October, then quickly retraced, dropping by about a third.
That price movement felt less like a "normal pullback" and more like the market collectively recalled an old question: what does leverage do to narratives?
A notable micro event was the volatility of Ethena's USDe on Binance — during the intense market fluctuations, USDe experienced a significant decoupling on that leading platform.
Although Binance later attributed the issue to pricing/oracle mechanisms and implemented compensation arrangements, this incident brought to light a well-known yet unacknowledged fact: when structures are complex and platforms are under pressure, "stability" is largely still a confidence project.
The lesson at the end of the year is more structural.
2025 pushed the crypto track into the mainstream, but quickly reminded everyone — reflexivity is still the tax this system pays for "speed + leverage + composability."
Wall Street's embrace has brought mainstream capital, but it has also introduced liquidity side effects, especially during moments when other asset allocations need balancing and liquidation pressure arises.
The mainstream market dream of the crypto circle has been realized, but is the weight of its crown as light as you imagined?
Three Possible Main Lines That Could Determine 2026
If I were to make ten "precise predictions," I can guarantee that 80% of them would feel like a slap in the face when looking back next year. So it’s better to outline three macro lines that I believe will truly drive the narrative.
First Line: The "Everything On-Chain" Dominated and Exported by the U.S.
The U.S. stablecoin legislation has triggered a "follow-up wave" in other international financial markets, and legislation related to market structure is also brewing.
Once the U.S. clarifies the on-chain tracks for securities and commodity assets, other jurisdictions will gradually align their standards — not because they suddenly trust crypto, but because they are unwilling to voluntarily lose issuance and trading volume in the global market.
By then, the meaning of "everything on-chain" will change:
It will no longer just be "real asset shells on-chain," but will begin to incubate new assets that did not previously exist — expanding from new forms of stocks, bonds, and funds to various original forms that were previously difficult to clearly define as "financial products."
Second Line: AI × Crypto, Centralization and Decentralization Collide Head-On
So far, AI has been more of a "financial report story of a few large companies": model companies, the three major cloud giants, GPU/TPU manufacturers, far exceeding market averages in revenue, capital expenditure, and net profit growth.
When computing power, data, and distribution are highly capital-intensive and concentrated on a few balance sheets, the so-called "AI economy" is essentially being "circularly held" by these few companies.
In such a world, crypto is not thinking about "can AI agents use tokens," but rather:
In the entire agent stack, which parts do we genuinely hope to keep neutral, open, and shareable, rather than leaving it to data center owners to define?
Agentic Commerce is one of the scenarios that brings this question to reality:
On one hand, agents need strong identity, accountability, and dispute resolution, which naturally pushes towards centralized roles; on the other hand, they also need programmable constraints and interoperable money, which naturally points to open, trustworthy, and neutral tracks.
I believe the combination that ultimately wins will likely candidly acknowledge this asymmetry: use centralized AI infrastructure where it is needed, and keep open where it is especially important — particularly in payments, permissions, and states — as much as possible on infrastructure that remains competitive and composable.
Third Line: The Connection Between Crypto and the Real World Is No Longer Just Talk
One of the most inconspicuous costs of AI — electricity — may become one of its core entry points of intersection with crypto.
The construction of new data centers for training and inference is driving up the already strained grid load, which must also cope with climate fluctuations. Energy is no longer a pristine concept in ESG terms, but a real growth ceiling.
At this point, the once seemingly marginal concept of DePIN has the opportunity to shift from "narrative" to "tool": using tokenized incentives to coordinate the construction and financing of computing power, connectivity, and energy infrastructure, especially in places where traditional grid coverage is insufficient, financial models are difficult to operate, but the AI and data era indeed requires new infrastructure.
Crypto must either genuinely secure a place in the capital stack of these new infrastructures or realize that the much-discussed "RWA story" of the past two years largely remains stuck in PPT.
If you've made it this far, here's an extra tidbit:
As the foundation of web3 philosophy, can "ownership" solve the social problems that AI is about to exacerbate?
Beneath the three main lines mentioned above, there exists a more severe macro backdrop.
In many countries, a generation of "new middle class" is witnessing their actual purchasing power diluted year by year; at the same time, the productivity revolution brought by AI is hollowing out primary positions that originally served as "entry tickets" in multiple industries, leading to unprecedented high youth unemployment rates.
In the future, an increasing amount of income will be earned online, settled cross-border, and occur in environments where user trust in platforms exceeds trust in local banks and governments.
The returns on capital will accelerate compounding; the returns on labor will struggle to keep up.
In such a world, crypto is gradually becoming not just a narrative, but a counterweight to hedge against the impending socio-economic pressures.
Flowing along the same track are not only stablecoins, various tokens, and yield products, but also a small slice of new capital stock: networks, infrastructure, cash flows not locked by a single country or employer, and purchasing power no longer eroded by currency overissuance and hyperinflation.
Crypto is becoming the underlying infrastructure of this new capital formation system — and whether young people and the squeezed middle class can obtain enough ownership slices will largely determine whether they can use this system to escape the poverty trap induced by AI or remain firmly locked within it.
The final remarks may sound heavy, but they are indeed a reality challenge worth pondering.
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