Written by: Yue Xiaoyu

Many people are still trying to find a sword in the boat, but they do not realize that the Bitcoin market has undergone structural changes.

1. Is the four-year cycle of Bitcoin still in place?

Gold has surged, silver has surged, and even A-shares have surged, but Bitcoin has not increased this year.

In fact, the four-year cycle has been clearly broken.

This bull market not only started early but also does not replicate the previous cycle's patterns of rise and fall.

According to past patterns, 2025 should be a big bull year, but this year's performance has been relatively poor.

2. Why has the four-year cycle been broken?

One core reason is: Bitcoin has shifted from being supply-driven to being demand-driven.

Previously, Bitcoin's supply halved every four years, and with unchanged demand, the price naturally rose; however, now that most Bitcoin has already been mined, the annual supply changes have a smaller impact on the price.

On the other hand, the pricing power of Bitcoin is now in the hands of Wall Street, with traditional financial institutions continuously entering the market and traditional funds consistently flowing in.

Changes on the demand side of the market have become more influential than changes in supply.

3. What is the next phase for Bitcoin?

The current narrative for Bitcoin is "digital gold," but for Bitcoin to truly replace gold, it needs to have superior attributes that are more than ten times better than gold.

Bitcoin already possesses the scarcity of gold, and there is one major potential that has yet to be unleashed: digitality.

Or it can be called programmability.

If it is merely about hoarding coins, then it is no different from gold. What gold cannot do is become an income-generating asset, while Bitcoin can.

A financial system can be built around Bitcoin.

Imagine if Bitcoin also became digital oil, usable in various practical scenarios; Bitcoin could also become digital bonds, giving rise to various financial derivatives.

There are already some projects continuously building in this direction, such as the GOAT Network, which focuses on Bitcoin yield.

The next narrative for Bitcoin should be "yield-generating digital gold."

This narrative point has not yet been fully valued by the market. It is advisable to position oneself in related projects in advance.

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