Hedge funds running leveraged basis trades are now among the largest holders of US Treasury debt.

According to the Federal Reserve, Cayman-domiciled hedge funds held ~$1.85 trillion of US Treasuries at the end of 2024, overtaking major foreign official holders like Japan, China, and the UK. These funds have become the marginal foreign buyers of Treasury notes and bonds.

Hedge funds finance these positions by borrowing heavily in repo markets, making them among the largest cash borrowers in the system. At the same time, the supply of cash lenders is being strained.

Money market funds have pulled over $2 trillion out of the Reverse Repo Facility (RRP) over the past two years to buy more T-bills. Bank reserves have dropped more than $500 billion since July.

Meanwhile, the US is running $1.5-2T fiscal deficits annually, requiring multi-trillion dollar absorption of new Treasury issuance every year. This demand is crowding out liquidity in funding markets.

If funding liquidity dries up in repo and strong demand from borrowers forces costs to rise, the basis trade could sour. Hedge funds would be forced to unwind massive UST positions.

Long term rates would spike. Bond volatility would jump. Spillover shocks across risk markets would pressure funds to de-gross and de-risk across asset classes.

This is why the Treasury Secretary can't term out the debt. Sending bond yields and volatility higher risks triggering broader disruptions as hedge funds de-gross positioning, threatening the ~$2 trillion basis trade that underpins the long end of the curve in the first place.

Fiscal dominance is in the driver's seat.

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