This question is quite good. Overall, the current interest rate differential is still significant. For example, the interest rate in the United States is currently 3.75%, while in Japan it is 0.5%. Even if it is raised to 0.75% next week, the interest rate differential will still reach 3%. For global capital, this kind of interest rate differential is enough to support the continuation of carry trades.

In other words, borrowing yen and then buying dollar assets is still profitable.

Many friends see the long-term yield in Japan rise to 2% and think that the yen will strengthen, but in reality, the foreign exchange market prices in "financing costs" and "interest rate differential stability," rather than the yield of long-term government bonds.

As long as the short-term interest rate differential remains around 3% and the yen continues to be one of the lowest financing currencies globally, global capital will not actively end the carry trade structure, and the yen will naturally not appreciate significantly due to Japan's slight interest rate hike.

Therefore, as long as the interest rate differential structure is not fundamentally disrupted, the core logic of USDJPY will not change, and it will be difficult for the exchange rate to experience a sustained reversal.

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