The latest FOMC meeting lowered interest rates as expected, but the forward guidance did not clarify the subsequent policy direction, instead signaling a "pause period" for policy. Despite frequent mentions of the "Federal Reserve restarting balance sheet expansion" recently, the reflection of such uncertainty in current pricing remains limited based on interest rate pricing and asset performance. Powell's statements at the press conference leaned towards caution, combined with early signs of a weakening labor market, indicating that the current macro environment has changed significantly from the beginning of the year. Against this backdrop, Bitcoin has for the first time broken below a key long-term trend indicator in this bull market, and the market structure is beginning to change. The market is gradually shifting from a previous single trend to a more complex phase that relies on rhythm judgment and risk control.

Confirmation of Policy Pause: Macro Margins Weakening, Liquidity Expectations Cooling Again

Although the Federal Reserve has completed the interest rate cut, the overall tone of the post-meeting statement is hawkish, only expecting one rate hike in 2026, with the next one postponed to 2027. This arrangement sends a clear signal of a "policy pause period," highly similar to the situations in 2019 and 2024—Bitcoin often strengthens before the meeting and gradually weakens after the rate cut is implemented.

Recently, the market has frequently mentioned the "Federal Reserve restarting balance sheet expansion," but it should be noted that the "technical" purchase of $40 billion in Treasury bills each month does not constitute quantitative easing. Its core role is to hedge against liquidity recovery brought about by quantitative tightening, as well as factors such as the rise in the Treasury's general account and the decrease in reverse repo balances, rather than providing trend support for risk assets. Against the backdrop of continuously declining interest rate expectations, a cooling real estate market, and rising unemployment rates, the macro positive momentum is weakening.

Technical Signals and Political Cycle Resonance: Bull Market Rhythm Facing Tests

For Bitcoin, this macro turning point coincides with key technical signals. Since the start of the fifth bull market, the price has first fallen below the 12-month moving average. In the past three cycles, this signal has corresponded to the end of the bull market phase and often appears within about a year before the U.S. midterm elections.

From a longer-term perspective, it is more inclined to attribute Bitcoin's four-year rhythm to the political cycle rather than the halving event itself. Historical experience shows that the months leading up to the midterm elections are often a phase where Bitcoin's performance is relatively pressured and volatility is amplified. Currently, U.S. stocks are still near historical highs, with the 10-year Treasury yield stabilizing around 4%, and both fiscal and policy space are constrained, making true policy support seem distant.

Overall, Bitcoin's short-term rebound does not mean that a new round of bull market has begun. With a weak macro environment, tight liquidity, and rising unemployment risks, combined with the politically sensitive period before the midterm elections, this stage is more likely to experience high volatility and back-and-forth movements. In the current environment, compared to betting on a one-sided trend, the market needs more flexible responses and position management. The bull market will eventually come, but before that, opportunities are more likely to arise from grasping the phase rhythm rather than assuming that the market will quickly return to the original bull market channel.

Some of the above views are from Matrix on Target, Contact Us_ to obtain the complete report of Matrix on Target._

Disclaimer: The market has risks, and investment should be cautious. This article does not constitute investment advice. Trading in digital assets may carry significant risks and volatility. Investment decisions should be made after careful consideration of personal circumstances and consultation with financial professionals. Matrixport is not responsible for any investment decisions made based on the information provided in this content.

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