Today, the highly anticipated TGA (The Game Awards) ceremony in the gaming world has finally concluded.

Let's rewind to three hours before the awards ended. At this point, the "Best Independent Game" award had just been given to the popular title "Light and Shadow: Expedition Team 33," which raised concerns among many fans: historically, no game has ever won both the "Best Independent Game" and "Game of the Year (GOTY)" awards at the TGA. As a GOTY contender, "Light and Shadow" now had the burden of breaking the curse that has existed since the TGA's inception, creating an unprecedented moment in gaming history.

Just as everyone was worried, a mysterious individual registered an account on a seemingly unrelated "prediction market" platform and deposited $10,000. They found the topic "Will Light and Shadow win the 2025 GOTY?" and bet the entire $10,000 on "Yes." At that moment, the price for "Yes," representing the probability of the event, was $0.98 per share, meaning that even if "Light and Shadow" indeed made history by winning both awards, their $10,000 bet would yield less than $200 in profit. However, if "Light and Shadow" failed to break the TGA curse, the probability for this topic would instantly drop to 0, meaning their recently deposited $10,000 would be wiped out. What kind of passionate fan of "Light and Shadow" would take such a reckless risk? How does the prediction market attract gaming enthusiasts from around the world to speculate on potential award winners in advance?

The "Preordained" Script

As early as October 30, a month and a half before the awards ceremony, the prediction market Polymarket launched the topic "2025 Game of the Year." The probability of "Light and Shadow" winning was firmly pegged above 80% from the start, while the probabilities for other highly anticipated AAA titles were suppressed below 10%. This one-sided situation, which typically only occurs in events where the outcome is no longer in doubt, led many traders to sense something unusual: this was not just optimism; it was certainty.

Among these traders with a "certain" attitude, a few exhibited extremely uniform trading styles, suggesting the possibility of insider trading. DieselDiesel, trumpnogo, and kasae all placed bets on "Light and Shadow winning the TGA 2025 GOTY" at around 85% probability, with amounts exceeding their usual bets by dozens or even hundreds of times. This extreme concentration and abnormal betting behavior put them at significant risk: if "Light and Shadow" ultimately did not win, they would not only have to forfeit all past profits but also incur substantial losses.

As time progressed and the probability of "Light and Shadow" winning increased, they did not sell any of their holdings for profit. Even three hours before the award announcement, after the "Best Independent Game" award had been revealed, they remained unmoved, seemingly foreseeing the future, and, along with the mysterious individual mentioned at the beginning, risked their entire account for a final small profit.

The Historic Award Moment and the Cashing In of Insider Knowledge

Amidst doubts and unease, the TGA unfolded as if scripted by these traders over a month ago, dispelling the final suspense: the much-anticipated "Light and Shadow," having already won the "Best Independent Game" award, broke the historical curse and won the Game of the Year award.

While players on one side cheered, the prediction market revealed the final mystery: the three traders who had determined a month ago that "Light and Shadow" would win had indeed played the role of "prophets," achieving substantial profits:

DieselDiesel made a profit of $5,357 from this event, accounting for 176% of all their other trading profits;

trumpnogo made a profit of $2,958 from this event, accounting for 62% of all their other trading profits;

kasae made a profit of $1,658 from this event, accounting for 220% of all their other trading profits.

The mysterious individual we mentioned earlier (bobo9997) won "up to" $200 from their $10,000 bet, firmly believing that "Light and Shadow would make history."

"Even Prophets Need to Eat"

The most noteworthy commonality among these four traders is that, while many players questioned whether "Light and Shadow" could break the historical curse, they were willing to risk nearly $100,000 in positions to "bet" that this historic moment would occur, yet the total profit from this "gambling" amounted to less than $2,000.

Now, let’s assume these "prophets" are TGA vote auditing staff. For an insider with an annual income of $100,000, if they wanted to monetize the information in a traditional way, they would need to sell the insider knowledge to media platforms, which would entail various potential fines, termination, or even imprisonment. However, with the emergence of prediction markets, they can anonymously exchange information asymmetry for real cash equivalent to one to three months of disposable income.

When we view them as insiders who already know the results, everything becomes clear: with 100% confirmation that "Light and Shadow" would be GOTY, their "bet" at the final moment was merely a one-hour wait before the awards, trading what seemed like a huge risk for a profit of $2,000 that was, in reality, a certainty. Such a seemingly risky but actually certain money-making "bet" was nearly impossible to encounter before the advent of prediction market platforms.

However, with the popularity of Polymarket, how many people can resist the temptation to convert information into real cash anonymously?

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