To be honest, I actually think that if there is really an economic recession, it could be a "good thing." Historically in the U.S., when interest rates exceed 5%, the probability of a recession is quite high. Although a recession is painful, it is the fastest way to reduce inflation; otherwise, inflation and the economy will keep pulling back and forth, much like a tumor. Indeed, conservative treatment seems to cause the least harm, but surgery for removal is the only permanent solution.

The issue of inflation is like a tumor, and the Federal Reserve is the primary doctor, with the patient being the United States. If surgery is performed, there will definitely be bleeding and it will surely harm the vitality. While slow treatment may lead to recovery, it could also worsen the situation. Without Trump, the process of surgery might be accelerated, leading to a recession and then a rebuilding.

But with Trump in office, he will not accept a recession occurring during his term. If it were earlier this year, it would have been easier to shift the blame to the Democrats. Now that a year has passed, a recession would impact the midterm elections in 2026. This is why Trump will use all means to ensure the U.S. economy is on the upswing, while on the other hand, forcing the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates. This is the current tug-of-war situation.

After Powell steps down in May 2026, it will truly be a case of "eight immortals crossing the sea."

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