🧐 Going up is emotion, going down is the truth | After a surge last night, it fell again: $BTC $ETH

To be honest, when it was rising, it didn't look much like a "trend," more like "stepping into a liquidity void," soft and mushy!

Although the FOMC lowered interest rates, it was just in line with expectations, and the dot plot gave a bearish signal: "Don't think too much, there may only be one rate cut next year."

This statement can influence the pulse of risk assets more than any candlestick chart.

Thus, the market structure has become—

Going up relies on emotion, going down relies on pricing.

Let's look at the employment, inflation, and wage growth data in the coming months;

If the data continues to weaken,

The market will reprice to "more, faster, and closer rate cuts,"

The confidence in risk assets will return:

This drop will only turn into a washout.

But if the data holds up, inflation rises, and the labor market remains tight,

Then BTC will enter a:

More grueling, more chaotic, and more volatile range-bound period.

Ultimately, we are in a phase of the weakest consensus:

Everyone is looking forward to direction,

But funds are tightly held in hand,

This is the fundamental issue of liquidity shortage,

Not that everyone is out of money.

In such a market,

The easiest way to lose money is not by being wrong about the direction,

But by being too eager to find answers.

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