The market was as calm as water after the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision in the early morning, yet several whale addresses transferred hundreds of millions of dollars to exchanges, revealing a capital undercurrent unnoticed by most.
As of the morning of December 11, the address known as the "1011 Insider Whale" held approximately 120,000 ETH, with a total value nearing $400 million, and its unrealized profit from a 5x leveraged long position exceeded $12 million.
Another notable "BTC OG Insider Whale" conducted a massive asset restructuring over the past few months, reducing its BTC holdings from 88,000 to about 37,000, while converting most of the funds into ETH, involving a capital scale of up to several billion dollars.
1. Market Background
● In the early morning, the Federal Reserve announced its latest interest rate decision, lowering the benchmark rate by 25 basis points to 3.50%-3.75%. This expected rate cut did not trigger significant volatility in the cryptocurrency market. While macro news became clearer, the market's technical aspects presented complex signals.
● Bitcoin's price fell below 91,000 USDT on December 11, with a daily decline of 1.11%. More notably, some analysts observed that Bitcoin formed a "bear flag pattern" on the daily chart.
● This technical pattern suggests that if Bitcoin's price breaks below the flag's lower boundary at around $90,000, it could further decline to approximately $67,000, representing a potential drop of about 25% from the current price.
2. Latest Whale Activities
In such a complex market environment, crypto whales did not choose to sit on the sidelines but actively positioned themselves.
● The "1011 Insider Whale" significantly increased its position by 20,000 ETH between 1:32 AM and 2:32 AM Beijing time on December 11, bringing its total leveraged ETH long position to 100,985.
At current prices, these ETH are worth approximately $335 million, with an average opening price of $3,158, currently realizing a floating profit of $17.05 million, yielding a return of 25.45%.
● Almost simultaneously, another address known as the "Insider Whale" also executed a similar operation, increasing its position by 19,108.69 ETH.
This address now holds a total of 120,094.52 ETH, valued at approximately $392 million, with an average opening price of $3,177.89, currently realizing a floating profit of about $10.13 million.
● Both whales employed 5x leverage, with liquidation prices as low as $2,015 and $2,234, indicating their strong confidence that ETH prices will not fall below these levels.
3. Whale Operation Strategy Analysis
A deeper analysis of these whales' operational patterns reveals that they are not blindly betting but have a clear strategic logic.
● The "BTC OG Insider Whale" demonstrated more complex capital operation methods. During the market crash on December 1, this whale borrowed over 220 million USDT by collateralizing ETH, subsequently transferring these funds to trading platforms.
● This was clearly to prepare ammunition for subsequent operations. Then, on December 7, this whale used $70 million to open an ETH long position. This operation showcased a typical event-driven strategy—positioning ahead of significant macro events (the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision), anticipating that the event would catalyze the market to move in a specific direction.
● The operation records of this whale show that since August 21, it has conducted seven major contract trades, with six profitable and only one loss. This performance includes successfully positioning short before the significant drop in October and accurately capturing the market rebound at the end of November.
4. Cross-Asset Layout
In addition to focusing on ETH, whales are also seeking opportunities in other asset classes.
● In the early morning of December 11, a whale withdrew 101,365 SOL from the Kraken trading platform, valued at approximately $13.89 million. This whale currently holds a total of 628,564 SOL, valued at about $84.13 million, with most stored in private wallets and some in staking.
● This behavior of withdrawing tokens from trading platforms to private wallets is often interpreted as a signal for long-term holding, as it indicates that these assets will not be sold in the market in the short term. Looking back over a longer period of on-chain data, it can be seen that the whales' layouts are much broader than a single asset. In the payment/cross-border settlement sector, XRP has become a favorite among whales.
● In the past 30 days, addresses holding 100 million to 1 billion XRP have net increased their holdings by 970 million XRP, while addresses holding over 1 billion XRP have also net increased by 150 million XRP. These accumulation behaviors may be related to the gradual realization of XRP ETF expectations.
5. Market Structure Changes
The large-scale operations of whales are quietly changing the market structure, especially the distribution of ETH holdings.
● After the "1011 Insider Whale" and the "Insider Whale" each increased their holdings by tens of thousands of ETH, their respective ETH holdings have reached over 100,000 and 120,000. This means that these two whales control over 220,000 ETH, valued at over $700 million at current prices.
● This highly concentrated holding structure may have dual effects: on one hand, the large purchases by whales provide support for the market; on the other hand, such concentrated holdings may become an unstable factor during future market fluctuations.
● From market data, the accumulation by whales contrasts sharply with the behavior of ordinary investors. Glassnode's latest report indicates that the BTC spot accumulation trading volume difference indicator has further declined in the past week, clearly pointing to stronger potential selling pressure.
6. Risks and Outlook
● Although the operations of whales are eye-catching, they also come with significant risks. They generally use 3-5x leverage, which, while not extreme in the crypto market, can still lead to rapid liquidations during severe volatility.
● Taking the "1011 Insider Whale" as an example, its ETH long position has a liquidation price as low as $2,015. This means that if the ETH price drops by about 38%, this position will be forcibly liquidated, potentially triggering a chain reaction.
● From the overall market perspective, although whales are actively accumulating, multiple indicators show that the market still faces pressure. The phenomenon of capital outflow from Bitcoin spot ETFs continues, with these products experiencing a $60 million outflow in just one day on December 9.
● Analysts point out that the absence of new buyers and weakened ETF demand are key factors limiting Bitcoin's price from breaking above $93,000. If the market cannot attract new capital inflows, relying solely on whale support may struggle to maintain a long-term upward trend.
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