Today's content is a bit messy.

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Phyrex
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1 day ago

Today's content is a bit chaotic, but overall, there is a lot of gossip from the reporters. However, Powell clearly showed no interest in addressing these rumors. More people are asking about the expectations for interest rate cuts in 2026. I think Powell is still somewhat firm, especially regarding a rate cut in January. He believes there is still plenty of time to look at the data and is not in a hurry to cut rates in January. Of course, he said the same thing last month, but this month he contradicted himself.

However, Powell does believe that there will be a lot of December data available before the January meeting, and this data will help the Federal Reserve provide a basis for the January and subsequent monetary policy. Overall, it still depends on the data, but this time it is slightly different. Powell believes that if there were no tariffs, inflation would have already returned to around 2%. What needs to be confirmed now is whether the inflation in goods caused by tariffs is a one-time event.

In general, Powell did not make very hawkish statements and believes that the U.S. economy is developing well, with good growth driven by AI and strong resilience. He did not mention the possibility of an economic downturn, although he did acknowledge that there are indeed risks to the labor market.

Many reporters asked whether the downturn in labor is related to AI. To be honest, this puts Powell in a bit of a tough spot, but he believes that the current layoffs are not significantly influenced by AI. He also stated that the current unemployment rate is still low, and focusing on the data remains a priority, suggesting a more neutral stance.

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