Cryptocurrency News
December 10 Hot Topics:
1. Coinbase: We will not execute the migration from STG to ZRO on behalf of customers; users must complete the conversion themselves.
2. SEC Chairman: Many types of cryptocurrency ICOs are not under the jurisdiction of the SEC.
3. Bitwise converts BITW to a cryptocurrency index ETP traded on NYSE Arca.
4. Roxom launches the world's first Bitcoin-denominated securities exchange.
5. Cathie Wood: The four-year cycle of Bitcoin will be broken; we may have already seen the lowest point.
Trading Insights
Four Stages of Major Player Involvement in Digital Currency: A Practical Breakdown from Accumulation to Distribution
Accumulation Stage: The Major Player's "Quiet Hoarding" Period
The core action of major funds during this stage is to collect chips at low prices. At this time, the major player is the main buyer, while retail investors are mostly sellers. From the market characteristics, it can be judged through the relationship between volume and price: when the price of digital currency is in a low range, there will be a stepwise increase in volume (trading volume gradually increases), accumulation (large transactions continuously occur), and simultaneous rise in volume and price (price rises in sync with trading volume). These characteristics correspond directly to the chip distribution chart, reflecting that the major player is steadily accumulating.Rally Stage: The Major Player's "Profit-Taking" Period
After completing the accumulation, the price of digital currency will break away from its cost zone, and the major player will begin to realize paper profits. During this stage, the major player will use a small portion of funds to wash out (consolidate and clean up retail investors' floating chips), while most chips remain unchanged; corresponding to the chip distribution chart, a large number of chips still occupy the bottom area, which is the core holding of the major player, aiming to wait for subsequent high-level cashing out and pushing the price further up.Peak Stage: The Major Player's "Preparation to Exit" Signal Period
When the price of digital currency is at a high level, if a large number of chips suddenly disappear from the bottom area, it is a clear sign of the major player preparing to distribute. The key characteristics of this stage are: low-level chips will continuously move to high levels and form a dense accumulation at high levels, while the market turnover rate significantly increases (a large number of chips are exchanged at high levels), indicating that the major player is accelerating the transfer of chips, and the price is about to peak.Distribution Stage: The Major Player's "Cashing Out" Final Period
After the major player has completed profit-taking at high levels, the market chips will be fully concentrated in the high range, with no major player holding chips at the bottom. At this time, the major player's distribution actions have been completed, and the digital currency will lack upward momentum; investors should not continue to hold and should immediately take stop-loss or take-profit actions to avoid being trapped.
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BTC
Analysis
The biggest news today is that the U.S. has agreed to sell Nvidia H200 to China. This is a continuation of the honeymoon period between the two countries, and we don't have to consider too many issues regarding U.S.-China trade for now. Moreover, Trump can still take a 25% cut; it's no wonder he is a businessman.
In addition, the rise in job vacancies indicates that the U.S. economy may not be as bad as it seems. Almost simultaneously with the data release, both the U.S. stock market and BTC saw a good rebound. I don't know if this is related to the job vacancy data, but the most important thing remains the interest rate meeting early Thursday morning. A 25 basis point rate cut should be fine; the focus will be on the dot plot and Powell's speech. BTC has seen three consecutive weekly gains, with a clear bullish structure; this week closed positively, and next week is likely to break the downward trend line; the daily line has broken through the triangle consolidation and downward trend line but encountered resistance and fell back at 94,000; currently, it is confirming support at the trend line, and an effective pullback will lead to further upward movement; daily indicators MACD and RSI have golden crosses, indicating continued upward movement; for short-term levels, pay attention to the 4-hour chart, with short-term opportunities waiting to be seized.
In terms of short-term analysis, on the 4-hour level, the larger scale is in a fluctuating upward channel, while the smaller scale has broken through the downward channel, forming a bullish flag pattern, with a target position near 97,000 (which is also the upper resistance area of the upward channel).
If the neckline position of the triple bottom near 94,000 breaks, it may form a triple bottom, with target areas of 104,000-106,000 (which is also the pressure point of the starting drop).
If there is a pullback, pay attention to the support around the mid-track of the upward channel near 91,500 and the lower track near 86,500, which should not be effectively broken.
ETH
Analysis
Innovation has already begun for the cryptocurrency industry. Today, the OCC-regulated U.S. federal banks officially allow trading of risk-free principal-type cryptocurrency assets, meaning banks can now take on some of the work of exchanges to provide cryptocurrency trading. Although this may reduce some exchanges' income, it is a good development for the industry. After all, banks are equivalent to regulated exchanges.
Ethereum has seen three consecutive weekly gains, breaking through the downward channel. If it does not break on the pullback, it will continue to show a sustained rebound structure; the daily line has four consecutive gains + a volume breakout of the downward trend line, forming a W bottom, with a target of 3630 (0.5-0.618 resistance); the 4-hour chart is operating within an upward channel, stabilizing on the mid-track pullback, and is expected to challenge the upper track of the channel at 3550-3600.
Disclaimer: The above content is personal opinion and for reference only! It does not constitute specific operational advice and does not bear legal responsibility. Market conditions change rapidly, and the article has a certain lag; if there are any unclear points, feel free to consult.
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