_This article is from: _Archive

Compiled by｜Odaily Planet Daily (@OdailyChina); Translator｜Azuma (@azumaeth)_

Polymarket is currently the hottest prediction market platform where people bet real money on the outcomes of real-world events, such as the U.S. elections, sports competitions, asset prices, policy changes, and more.

Polymarket operates on the Polygon network and settles transactions using USDC, offering transparency, speed, and almost no fees.

There are also bots on Polymarket that exploit traders' mistakes faster than others and repeatedly capitalize on these errors, earning huge profits through thousands of executions.

The reason why bots thrive on Polymarket is:

• Open API, transparent order book — bots can see everything;
• Extremely low fees, instant settlement — small price difference arbitrage can operate effectively;
• Millions of human users trading manually, many of whom frequently make mistakes.

This is not an article advertising bots. It is a breakdown from the simplest bots to AI monsters that can truly make money.

### 1. Entry-Level Bots

Airdrop Mining Bots: Volume Boosters

The market expects that interactive behavior on Polymarket will receive generous airdrop rewards. These bots continuously buy and immediately sell the same position, repeating the cycle solely to inflate trading volume — with no real intent, purely for volume.

The operation method is simple — choose a market with good liquidity, for example, buy a "YES" position for $10, and instantly sell it for $10, thus boosting the trading volume.

Advantages:

• None.

Disadvantages:

• No one knows the specific criteria for airdrops;
• The platform may not count such transactions;
• Airdrops may not exist, and you might be working in vain.

Volatility Capture Bots: Targeting Panic Moments

These bots look for sharp price fluctuations and bet against the market, expecting a mean reversion — prices will eventually return to normal.

Bots continuously monitor price history, calculating the deviation of the current price from recent averages. Once prices spike or plummet sharply, the bots quickly open positions in the opposite direction, betting that the market is overreacting.

Advantages:

• Can operate with small amounts of capital;
• Simple and easy-to-understand logic;
• Profits from human users' emotions and mistakes.

Disadvantages:

• Not all volatility is false; sometimes significant news can trigger market changes;
• If stop-loss or target levels are set incorrectly, fees can lead to losses;
• Risk management must be strict; otherwise, it results in chronic losses.

### 2. Intermediate-Level Bots

Market-Making Bots: Spread Harvesters

These bots profit by continuously placing buy and sell limit orders on both sides.

Bots place buy orders slightly below the current price and sell orders slightly above it. When both are executed, the spread is earned. Additionally, Polymarket rewards liquidity provision, meaning double income.

Advantages:

• Dual income sources: spread + platform rewards;
• In calm, low-volatility markets, returns can be surprisingly stable;
• Effective if the right market is chosen.

Disadvantages:

• Requires at least $10,000 in capital for the spread to be meaningful;
• Very sensitive to sudden market fluctuations: if your buy order is executed just before a crash, you may be stuck at a high price;
• A bad market can wipe out a week's earnings.

### 3. Advanced-Level Bots

Arbitrage Bots

When the total price of related outcomes (e.g., the basic "YES" and "NO") is below 100%, there is an arbitrage opportunity.

More complex tests involve arbitraging between different related markets (different expressions of the same event, time windows, compound conditions, etc.). As long as the positions are constructed correctly, you can make a profit regardless of the outcome.

Advantages:

• Correctly constructed arbitrage strategies do not depend on event outcomes;
• Profits from market inefficiencies that humans cannot process quickly.

Disadvantages:

• The more arbitrage bots there are, the faster the opportunity windows close — profits become thinner;
• A theoretically perfect arbitrage strategy may fail in execution due to insufficient liquidity.

AI Bots

These bots do more than just look at prices; they can estimate real probabilities more accurately than the market. They integrate and analyze historical prices, trading volumes, news, on-chain data, whale behavior, and sometimes even analyze collective sentiment on social media.

If the model determines that the market pricing is a 40% probability while the real probability is 60%, the bot will buy low and sell high, operating around the clock.

Advantages:

• Successful AI bots can span across politics, sports, macroeconomics, and more, with one model running across hundreds of markets;
• Can cover various signal sources: statistical, on-chain, news, behavioral indicators.

Disadvantages:

• High entry barrier.

You need to have data pipelines, infrastructure, machine learning skills, financial intuition, risk frameworks, and invest resources in data storage, processing, continuous model retraining, monitoring, and building a flawless risk management system. This is not a side job; it is akin to starting a startup.

### Technology Stack (Required for All Bots)

Polymarket API access: The official documentation contains all real-time data and order placement interfaces. Without this, nothing can be done.

Polygon wallet: Transactions are conducted on Polygon using USDC. You need a wallet private key that can sign transactions and manage balances.

Historical data storage:

• Bots need: prices, volumes, spreads, market metadata.
• Recommended PostgreSQL or a mix of SQL + columnar storage for fast data aggregation.

Python + common toolchain: For API requests, asynchronous processing, data analysis, and machine learning libraries.

Why Do Bots Always Win?

• Speed: No emotions, no hesitation;
• Discipline: Strictly follow system rules;
• Scale: A single bot can monitor thousands of markets while you sleep;
• Data depth: Combines prices, order books, news, and behavioral patterns into signals that you cannot manually calculate;

In summary, using trading bots on Polymarket is a powerful tool for achieving automated income — but the prerequisite is that you must manage risks effectively.

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