Today, I had a lot of discussions with Brother Wu about this topic. From my perspective, the removal of SLR and the halt of balance sheet reduction are signals of a reversal. Of course, this does not mean that we will immediately transition from a liquidity low to a liquidity surplus; it requires a process. However, these two factors are indeed what I consider to be sufficient and necessary conditions for a reversal.

If we can decouple on April 1, combined with the change of the Federal Reserve Chairman in May, as long as the market does not experience a recession, it is still worth looking forward to.

The tweet below is an article I wrote on March 10, 2025, regarding the judgment of bull and bear markets, which discusses what I believe to be the best timing and range for bottom-fishing at that time. More importantly, my understanding of cycles can serve as a reference for my friends.

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Address: https://x.com/Phyrex_Ni/status/1899014782424096977?s=20

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