The weekend mood is relatively okay. Although the price of $BTC has not stabilized above $90,000, it is better than the downward trend on Friday. It's good that it managed to stabilize on Saturday, considering the liquidity on weekends is notoriously low. A slight dip in sentiment can lead to a rapid price drop. Since Friday, there hasn't been any significant negative information, and this has been the case recently, mainly due to investors' expectations regarding the Federal Reserve.

Today, while checking information during the day, I found that American investors have started to anticipate a rate cut in January. However, aside from the expectation that the Federal Reserve will likely cut rates in December, there are no other positive signals, and there are no clear signs of liquidity recovery. We may have to wait and see, but it is certain that the current price fluctuations are still dominated by the Federal Reserve's monetary policy.

Next week is the interest rate meeting. Currently, the probability of a rate cut in December according to CME is 86.2%, and the probability on Polymarket has already exceeded 90%. After Williams' speech, the probability of a rate cut in December should be quite high. The focus now will be on the dot plot.

Looking back at Bitcoin's data, there has been a significant increase in turnover rate, which suggests that the sentiment of short-term investors is quite unstable. It is evident that many of the recent buyers are those who have been bottom-fishing in the past few days, while earlier investors remain relatively calm.

Although the price is unstable, the chip structure is still quite good, especially since there hasn't been a large-scale reduction in holdings from investors who are stuck at the top, nor are there signs of panic. Therefore, the overall sentiment among investors is still quite positive, and this situation is already very similar to June and July of 2024.

The key is to wait for next week's interest rate meeting, to see the dot plot and listen to Powell's speech. Additionally, Japan is likely to raise interest rates in December, along with a bunch of macro data, which is quite a headache to think about.

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