During uptrends, Bitcoin trades above its:

• Short-term holder realized price

• 21-day EMA

• 55-day EMA

• 100-day EMA

• 200-day EMA

• 52-week EMA

All of them typically have a positive slope.

Even if it falls below those dynamic levels during a bull market, the breakdowns are short-lived and price manages to break above them.

Right now, price has managed to stay below ALL of them.

All of them have a negative slope.

Objectively, these are telling us that $BTC isn't in an uptrend.

And if it isn't in an uptrend, then it's hard to be in a bull market.

If we aren't in a bull market, then we must be in a bear market.

Also, bull markets tend to generate positive YoY returns.

Bitcoin currently has a negative YoY return.

Again, that's the characteristic of a bear market.

We can debate how long the bear market will last and the magnitude of the potential drawdown, but all we know right now is the simple fact that Bitcoin is in a bear market.

Many people are still fighting this.

Personally, I'd rather not fight the objective truth.

Instead, I'll align with the data, recognize the headwinds, and focus on keeping my money rather than making more money.

Then I create invalidation criteria for when we might be back in a bull market.

I have a whole system for this, based on data.

If my system is different than yours, that's fine.

But I encourage you to have a system.

If you can't create one yourself, then use mine.

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