The rebound in the current cryptocurrency market is gradually unfolding, but the internal driving logic has shown significant differentiation. Bitcoin continues its rebound trend, but overall it remains within a bearish framework; meanwhile, clues pointing to more structural changes in the market are gradually directing attention towards Ethereum. Currently, the derivative positions of BTC and ETH have both fallen back to unusually low levels, and the position structure has been reset, leading to a significant increase in the market's price sensitivity to new exposures. Against this backdrop, the recent network upgrade completed by Ethereum has had a substantial impact on its underlying economic structure, but the related changes have not yet been fully priced in by the market, making it a more noteworthy trading focus at this stage.

Position structure reset, market more sensitive to new funds

From the perspective of position structure, both Bitcoin and Ethereum currently have futures open interest levels that are historically low. This indicates that the previously accumulated long and short exposures have significantly receded, compressing the overall leverage structure in the market. In a similar position reset environment, once new directional funds begin to enter, price fluctuations are often rapidly amplified. Earlier this year, under a similar position backdrop, Ethereum triggered an approximately 38% increase in a short period. This familiar structure is re-emerging, providing the necessary conditions for a phase rebound.

Upgrade effects gradually emerging, Ethereum's short-term performance may outperform Bitcoin

Compared to Bitcoin, Ethereum's recent network upgrade has directly improved its operational efficiency, cost structure, and the scalability between L1 and L2, further reinforcing its economic attributes as a core asset for Gas, collateral, and DeFi. Historical experience shows that improvements in network efficiency often lead to higher levels of on-chain activity, ultimately translating into structural demand for ETH. After the last upgrade, ETH not only saw a significant price increase, but its futures open interest also rapidly grew from about $8 billion to $16 billion. Currently, although the treasury-type buying from Ethereum-related enterprises is more scattered than before, 35.8% of the transactions in the options market still come from call option purchases, indicating that some traders have begun to reposition towards the upside. From a price path perspective, ETH still has room to advance towards the $3,300–$3,500 range, making participation in the rebound through call spread strategies a clearer choice in terms of risk and reward boundaries.

Overall, this rebound should be viewed as a tactical opportunity within a bearish environment rather than a trend reversal. As long as Bitcoin's price remains below the 21-week moving average, its upward attribute still belongs to a rebound logic rather than a structural bull market; relatively speaking, higher upward elasticity is still concentrated on the Ethereum side. The combination of position reset and upgrade variables provides ETH with a better short-term risk-return structure, but this window relies on grasping trading-level opportunities rather than long-term trend judgments. For investors, the key at this stage is to seize the tactical opportunities brought about by structural improvements, rather than prematurely betting that a new cycle has already begun.

Some of the views above are from Matrix on Target, Contact Us_ to obtain the complete report from Matrix on Target._

Disclaimer: The market has risks, and investment should be cautious. This article does not constitute investment advice. Trading in digital assets may carry significant risks and volatility. Investment decisions should be made after careful consideration of personal circumstances and consultation with financial professionals. Matrixport is not responsible for any investment decisions made based on the information provided in this content.

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