According to the latest market information this evening (December 4) Beijing time, Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) are currently near key price levels after experiencing a strong rebound, with short-term trends influenced by macro expectations and technical resonance.
Bitcoin (BTC)
Current price and status: Approximately $93,000, at a short-term critical watershed. Daily fluctuations are between $92,612 and $94,002.
Key support level: $90,500 (near-term defense zone)
Core observation point: Whether it can hold above $93,000.
Recent capital flow: The spot ETF has seen a net inflow for four consecutive days recently.
Ethereum (ETH)
Current price and status: Approximately $3,100-$3,200, breaking through key psychological and technical resistance zones. Significant increase within 24 hours.
Key resistance level: $3,100 - $3,200 area; dense resistance above at $3,363 - $3,566 (moving average convergence area).
Key support level: $2,850 - $2,900 area.
Recent capital flow: The spot ETF has recently seen net outflows, but there has been a massive short liquidation in the futures market over the past 24 hours.
Core Factors Driving the Current Market
This rise is not driven by a single factor but is the result of multiple macro and internal market forces working together.
Shift in macro expectations: The market's expectations for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates in December have sharply increased, with the probability rising to about 90%. This enhances market liquidity, which is generally favorable for risk assets like Bitcoin.
Internal market capital rotation: There have been signs of capital rotating from Bitcoin to assets like Ethereum recently. For example, there has been outflow from the Bitcoin spot ETF, while the Ethereum spot ETF has recorded significant inflows.
Key technical breakthroughs: Ethereum successfully implemented the "Fusaka" upgrade, significantly improving network performance, which has become an important catalyst for its price breaking above $3,000.
Evening Market Highlights and Potential Trends
Based on various viewpoints, the evening market movements may revolve around the following key points:
Bitcoin's defense and confirmation: $93,000 is a position that bulls need to defend. If it can hold, it may open up space for further upward movement; if it fails, attention will need to be paid to the support strength near $90,500. Market sentiment has recovered from "extreme fear" but remains in the "fear" zone, indicating cautious investor sentiment.
Ethereum's resistance test: Ethereum is currently facing a strong resistance test at $3,100 to $3,200. If it can effectively break through with volume (such as closing above this level), it may open a path towards $3,400 or even higher (like $3,800). Conversely, if the breakout fails, it may retreat to the $2,850-$2,900 area to seek support.
Risks to be aware of:
Macroeconomic data: The U.S. will release November non-farm payroll data tonight. If the data does not align with market expectations of a "cooling labor market," it may severely disrupt interest rate cut expectations, leading to market volatility.
High market volatility: The cryptocurrency market is highly volatile. In the past 24 hours, the total liquidation across the market reached $430 million, with Ethereum's short liquidation amounting to $103 million, far exceeding the long positions, indicating that market sentiment is highly susceptible to cascading sell-offs.
Summary
Overall, the key for the evening market lies in whether Bitcoin can hold above $93,000 and whether Ethereum can successfully break through the $3,100-$3,200 resistance zone. The macro-level expectations for interest rate cuts provide "fuel" for market upward movement, but the actual direction choice needs to be confirmed by price performance at key technical levels.
This article represents personal views only and is for reference only, not as a basis for actual operations. Market changes are unpredictable, and profits and losses are at one's own risk. For the latest trading strategies, follow the public account: Gu Yue KOL
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