ADP Unexpectedly Boosts Rate Cut Expectations, Cryptocurrency Rebounds Under Technical Pressure
In the past 24 hours, the cryptocurrency market has oscillated upward amid a tug-of-war between macroeconomic positives and technical pressures. The U.S. ADP employment data for November, released last night, unexpectedly showed a significant decline, with a reduction of 32,000 jobs. This was seen by the market as a key signal of cooling in the economy and job market. As the last employment clue before the Federal Reserve's December meeting, this data directly caused the market's expectations for a rate cut at the Fed's meeting on December 10-11 to soar to nearly 90%. The warming expectations for a rate cut weakened the dollar's attractiveness (the dollar index has fallen for nine consecutive days) and boosted the appeal of all risk assets, including Bitcoin. After a slight correction in the evening, Bitcoin and Ethereum rebounded strongly in the early morning—Bitcoin briefly touched the $94,000 mark before retreating to around $93,000; Ethereum climbed to the $3,200 range, showing an overall pattern of "positive support but limited gains."
Macro and Capital: ADP Ignites Rate Cut Expectations, Capital Supports the Rebound
The core driving force behind this rebound stems from clear macroeconomic positives. The ADP employment figures for December were significantly below market expectations, and the weak data confirmed the trend of cooling in the U.S. labor market, resonating with the Federal Reserve's Beige Book mentioning "increased economic downside risks," which directly raised the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in December to 89%. The dollar index weakened slightly as a result, and risk asset preferences warmed up, highlighting Bitcoin's anti-inflation properties as "digital gold."
Improvements in capital further strengthened the rebound momentum. Bitcoin spot ETFs have seen net inflows for five consecutive days, with BlackRock's IBIT seeing a single-day net inflow of $120 million yesterday, bringing the total asset net value back to $11.9587 billion, alleviating institutional selling pressure. Although Ethereum showed a slight net outflow from ETFs, on-chain data indicated that institutional accumulation trends remained unchanged—whales holding over 10,000 ETH continued to increase their positions, with 36.8 million ETH staked (accounting for 30.4% of total supply), forming long-term demand support for staking yield strategies.
Technical Analysis: Both Coins Under Pressure at the Upper Bollinger Band, Overbought Conditions Need Repair
The macro positives have not translated into significant surges, with the core constraint being multiple technical pressures. From a common perspective, both Bitcoin and Ethereum have rebounded to the upper Bollinger Band on the daily chart, which is a key resistance zone from previous rebounds; the four-hour RSI and KDJ indicators have remained in the overbought zone, indicating a gradual emergence of short-term repair needs. However, the short-term moving average system has collectively turned upward, providing effective support for prices, forming a balanced pattern of "pressure above, support below."
Short-term support for Bitcoin focuses on the $91,500 and $90,000 round numbers, with the former being the starting point for the early morning rebound and the latter serving as a recent oscillation platform for bullish-bearish transitions, establishing a double support to solidify the pullback baseline; resistance above is concentrated at $94,500, where this position overlaps with previous dense trading areas and Bollinger Band pressure. If the initial jobless claims data continues to reflect weak employment signals, a breakout and test of the $96,000 mark may be expected.
Short-term Bitcoin trading suggestions:
Buy near the $91,500-$91,000 area on a pullback, targeting $92,300-$92,800.
Sell near the $94,000-$94,500 area on a rebound, targeting $93,300-$92,500.
Ethereum is also showing a correlated rebound characteristic, with previous support levels of $2,950 and $2,870 having shifted up to $3,080 and $3,000, forming a tiered defense system; the key resistance level during the day is in the $3,250-$3,300 area, and a breakout will face the core resistance zone of $3,500-$3,700 from the early rebound last month—this area is the "bull-bear watershed" for this round of rebound. If it cannot break through effectively, profit-taking by institutions may trigger a bearish counterattack, and prices may experience a deep pullback again.
Short-term Ethereum trading suggestions:
Buy near the $3,080-$3,000 area on a pullback, targeting $3,130-$3,180.
Sell near the $3,250-$3,300 area on a rebound, targeting $3,200-$3,160.
Key Focus: Initial Claims Data Determines Short-term Direction
The current market focus has shifted to the evening's initial jobless claims data. If the data continues to confirm weakness in the job market, it will further strengthen rate cut expectations, providing momentum for both coins to break through technical resistance; conversely, if the data exceeds expectations and shows strength, it may cool rate cut expectations, leading to price pullbacks to support levels. Overall, the macro easing logic remains intact, and after technical repairs, there is still upward space. It is recommended to pay close attention to the effectiveness of breakouts at $94,500 for Bitcoin and $3,300 for Ethereum to assess the continuation of the rebound.
I really like a saying by the Buddha: "No matter who you meet, they are the person who is meant to appear in your life, not by chance; they will definitely teach you something." So I also believe: "Wherever I go, that is where I am meant to be, experiencing what I am meant to experience, meeting the people I am meant to meet." Thank you to everyone reading this article for our encounter!
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