Ethereum #Bitcoin #Ethereum Real-time Analysis #Bitcoin Real-time Analysis

Hello everyone, I am Lao Lü. The market is quite strange; once the price breaks, the impact is significant. In yesterday's strong rally, going short was basically a loss. This wave of strong growth primarily washed out those holding positions. Ethereum surged by $500 in 24 hours. In the previous article, we emphasized two key positions for Bitcoin and Ethereum: 3035 and 92350. Although the trends are consistent, there are still differences between the two. Bitcoin broke 92350 and only rose by a mere $1700, while Ethereum, after breaking 3035, shot straight up to the current high of $3239, gaining another $200. This is why I mentioned that once it breaks here, the previous resistance at 3170 would definitely not hold, as this is a four-hour level V-shaped reversal. If it were to drop, it would definitely be under the pressure of 3035. Once it breaks, we must use daily level resistance to find the upper pressure, and the major dense resistance at the daily level is 3250. We will cover this in the technical analysis section later. Unlike Ethereum, Bitcoin is still under the pressure of $94000. Yesterday, our strategy was clear: short near $94000. If you dared to do so yesterday, you would have seen some gains. At 2 PM yesterday, it reached 93950 and then dropped to 91600. This morning at 6 AM, it was at 94151 and fell to 92600. However, the reality is that very few dared to short in such a strong rally, especially since the price has risen from 83777, marking a nine consecutive green candle on the four-hour chart. Moving forward, Bitcoin's high points during each drop will be the same. The overall strategy is to short on the highs, and under the condition of divergence on the hourly chart, it won't rise too absurdly, but this is only valid for today.

As for Ethereum, when did the rhythm get disrupted? It started with the news at the beginning of this month. According to the upward pattern, by the end of this month, it should have strengthened under the support of $2980, rising to around $3250, and then planning to short on the mid-line. However, with the support of the news from Dongda, a large bearish candle formed on the daily chart, misleading the market, and then, with the backing of the news, it returned to the technical level, disrupting the entire rhythm. Human calculations cannot match the heavens. From the current upward structure, Ethereum is stronger than Bitcoin. This time, the ratio has basically reached 1:1, with 14 consecutive rises on the four-hour chart, without a single decent bearish candle. This kind of non-retracement, strong consecutive green candles, instead lays the foundation for shorting at the strong resistance of 3250. What is the most feared aspect of price increases? It is the alternating high breaks of bullish and bearish candles. This kind of rise is like boiling a frog in warm water, with the hourly chart showing alternating bullish and bearish movements, oscillating and repairing the insufficient upward momentum. Shorting in this situation actually carries higher risks. The current dense resistance at $3250 is mainly based on two technical aspects: one is the 0.618 of the drop opening at $3657, and the other is the continuous four-day resistance at the daily level from the 14th to the 17th of last month. If you can't see it clearly on the daily chart, you can look at it on the four-hour chart, which is very obvious. Since the 14th of last month, the four-hour chart has continuously faced resistance in the range of 3275 to 3220, followed by a significant drop. According to the previous dense resistance at the drop opening, if the price returns to this position, it will still face strong upward pressure. At the same time, we do not rule out that the range of 3275-3220 could be the new mid-line drop opening for Ethereum. If this range breaks, then the opportunities for shorting will be very limited, which can also be considered a trial short at the daily level. Because the area of dense support is large, we choose to focus on 3250, but considering the actual entry, this position may not be reached, so we simply choose to short in the range of 3220-3250 in batches. If the mid-line is established, even a small position would be good.

Without considering the extreme of 3250, it is recommended to short in the range of 3220-3250, with a stop loss set at: entry average price + $50 for stop loss.

Bitcoin, still the old technical points. Why is it that it cannot break above 94000? It is due to the large trend line resistance at the four-hour level. Since it is inconvenient to express in words, we will provide a chart, which is easy to understand and learn. Today's hourly chart for Bitcoin has already diverged. Don't be afraid of not making new highs; as long as you dare to make new highs, continue to short it! According to the intraday strategy, just continue to short around the 94000 position. However, one thing everyone needs to pay attention to is the strong surge after a significant divergence at the hourly level, which releases the bullish momentum. Therefore, from a technical perspective, we also preemptively set up a mid-line short strategy, not ruling out a repeat of the previous wave's movement, which is the waterfall drop from the divergence at 92868 on the hourly chart. We do not know if history will repeat itself, but if it does, we will not hesitate. That would be around the 95500 position for a mid-line short, but the price may not reach that point, so we prepare in advance.

To maintain a daily drop space of $2000-$3000, we will continue to short around 94000 and preemptively set up a mid-line short at 95500, with stop losses for both positions set at $1000 each.

Today: Written by Lao Lü on December 4, 2025, at 11:32 AM. Please note that all strategies are effective once and cannot be reused! Follow the text version and specific entry prices in the lower right corner of the image or video.

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