Cryptocurrency News
December 3 Hot Topics:
1. Bitfinex Alpha: From a time perspective, the crypto market is approaching a phase bottom.
2. Bybit collaborates with Mantle and Aave to launch a global institutional-grade on-chain liquidity network.
3. X Money is hiring a technical director for its payment platform, and Solana is responding enthusiastically.
4. MicroStrategy CEO: Does not rule out the possibility of lending Bitcoin to enhance financial flexibility.
5. On December 3, according to the CME's "FedWatch" data, the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in December is 89.2%, while the probability of maintaining the current rate is 10.8%.
Trading Insights
90% of liquidations happen here! It's not about poor technical skills; it's that you don't understand position control at all! The biggest lie in the crypto world: "If the technique is right, you can make a guaranteed profit." The truth is: out of 10 liquidations, 9 lose due to position size, and it has nothing to do with technique. So what if the direction is absurdly correct? If you go all in with heavy positions, a slight market reversal will have you out of the game. Newbies love to ask the foolish question: "Can I go all in this time?" Brother, you're not trading; you're betting your life on candlesticks. How many people have died in "adding to losing positions and holding on to wrong trades"? Greedy when profitable, reckless when losing, and a zeroed account is just a matter of time. I once relied on going all in to "gamble on luck," and after one operation, my account was left with only $250. After the painful realization, I understood: position control is what keeps you alive, and controlling your emotions is what allows you to make money. Now I only follow three iron rules: ① Light position trial trades: each trade no more than 10%-15% of total capital; losing won't hurt too much, and winning allows for gradual position increases. ② Always set stop-loss: cut immediately if the direction reverses; stop-loss is not a loss, it's insurance for your account. ③ Split positions to manage emotions: enter and exit in batches, so single stock fluctuations won't affect your mindset, making trading naturally stable. Remember: trading is not about who makes the most money, but who can survive until the day of profit. If you find position control troublesome today, expect to cry over liquidation tomorrow; if you're too lazy to learn the rules today, you'll have to kneel to recover tomorrow. Will you be the chives cut in three days or the seasoned trader making steady profits in three years? The choice is in your hands.
LIFE IS LIKE
A JOURNEY ▲
Below are the real-time trades from the Big White Community this week. Congratulations to those who followed along; if your trades aren't going well, you can come and test the waters.
The data is real, and each trade has a screenshot from when it was sent out.
**Search for the public account: *Big White Talks About Coins*
Bilibili and YouTube account: Daquan 777
BTC
Analysis
Bitcoin Weekly Level: The price opened low and rose high, basically confirming that the current weekly line is in a consolidation range. This week and mid-December's monthly trend will continue to oscillate widely within this range, so the overall weekly strategy revolves around high selling and low buying within the range.
Daily Level: In terms of candlesticks, the price has successfully broken through the descending trend line and formed a W-bottom structure. Yesterday's candlestick closed as a bullish engulfing candle, reversing the previous bearish candle, forming a bullish engulfing pattern. Today, there is a high probability of continued upward movement.
From the Bollinger Bands perspective, the price was previously suppressed by the middle band, but has now successfully broken through the downward channel of the middle band, with a preliminary bottom structure formed, and can be viewed as bullish for the day.
In terms of structure, the current structure is in a descending flag consolidation. Based on a 1:1 proportional upward range, the current short-term resistance high point is around 96500, so bullish for the day, while the longer-term view remains bearish.
The resistance for the longer-term view resonates with the upper Bollinger Band resistance.
4-Hour Level: The Vegas channel provides intraday resistance for the price.
ETH
Analysis
As soon as it landed in the market, there was an upward sentiment because today is indeed the day the Federal Reserve officially ends its balance sheet reduction. During the day, the Federal Reserve injected $13.5 billion into the banking system through overnight repos, marking the second-largest single-day liquidity injection since the pandemic.
However, this type of overnight repo is not easing; it is a passive liquidity injection due to the system being drained too quickly. The Federal Reserve is forced to step in to "refill," which is a one-time, passive liquidity adjustment. The core variable that truly determines whether the short end continues to tighten is that the SLR itself has not been relaxed. Banks still cannot expand their balance sheets, cannot absorb U.S. Treasuries on a large scale, and cannot bear the impact of fiscal replenishment.
Overall, this round of upward movement is more of a sentiment reaction to the end of balance sheet reduction rather than an improvement in system liquidity due to the $13.5 billion repo funds. Whether the short end of the dollar can truly ease depends not on overnight repos but on whether the SLR will be adjusted. If the SLR continues to maintain its current hard constraints, then this passive liquidity injection will repeatedly occur, and the market will oscillate between being drained and being refilled, without forming sustained liquidity easing.
A rebound to the 3126-3145 range can be used to short, with targets looking towards 3088-3056. A pullback to the 3020-3000 range can be used to go long, with targets looking towards 3070-3100.
Disclaimer: The above content is personal opinion and for reference only! It does not constitute specific operational advice and does not bear legal responsibility. Market conditions change rapidly, and the article has a certain lag; if you have any questions, feel free to consult.
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