Event Review 🚀

Last night, the market suddenly experienced a wave of strong buying. Starting at 22:30, the price of ETH rapidly climbed from around $2852 to nearly $2980. Multiple factors intertwined: a shift in U.S. macro policy, significant institutional capital inflow, and the market's anticipation of the Fusaka upgrade to be implemented on December 3rd for Ethereum, all catalyzed this sharp volatility. This was evident not only in the rapid increase in spot prices but also in trading volume and various technical indicators.

Timeline ⏰

• 22:30 – ETH price hovered around $2852 to $2860, at which point the market began to feel the positive signals from the adjustment of U.S. macro policy (such as the Federal Reserve halting quantitative tightening) and the entry of institutional funds.
• 22:30 to 23:20 – During this period, the ETH price surged from about $2860 to $2984, an increase of 4.35%. Institutional funds and strong buyer sentiment continuously pushed the price higher.
• 23:40 – The latest data showed that the ETH price stabilized at around $2980.15, with market sentiment remaining optimistic and buying power continuing to strengthen.

Reason Analysis 🔍

Macroeconomic Policy and Institutional Entry
Recently, there has been a significant shift in U.S. monetary policy, with reports indicating that the Federal Reserve has officially ended quantitative tightening, and future interest rate cuts are not ruled out. Additionally, banks like Bank of America allowing wealth management advisors to recommend a 1% to 4% allocation in cryptocurrencies, along with institutions like Vanguard and BlackRock easing some restrictions on Bitcoin ETFs, have greatly stimulated market capital inflow, making risk assets (including ETH) more favored.

Expectations for Technical Upgrades
The Ethereum Fusaka upgrade is widely anticipated, as it will significantly enhance network scalability, reduce Rollup costs, and provide more room for expansion. Investors are confident in this technological advancement, expecting the upgrade to further unlock value for Ethereum in the future, which is also a key factor driving the rapid rise in ETH prices in the short term.

Technical Analysis 📈

This technical analysis is based on the 45-minute candlestick data of Binance USDT perpetual contracts (ETH/USDT). The main observations are:

• Candlestick and Moving Average Trends

• The price broke through the upper Bollinger Band, indicating strong bullish momentum; the current price is above the MA5, MA10, MA20, and MA50 moving averages, showing a clear bullish arrangement.

• The EMA20 slope reached 1.09%, demonstrating strong upward momentum, while short-term moving averages like EMA5 and EMA10 are also trending upwards, indicating that market buying is dominant.

• Volume and Indicators

• Trading volume surged by 405.47%, with both volume and price rising, reflecting unprecedented buyer enthusiasm. In the last hour, large transactions and explosive order statistics showed a net inflow of about $100 million into the market.

• The OBV indicator broke through previous highs, ensuring that buying power continues to strengthen; at the same time, the MACD histogram has been rising continuously, supporting the upward trend.

• Warning of Overbought Signals

• The RSI is in the overbought zone, which may lead to short-term pullback pressure, but overall, the extremely active trading volume and continuously rising moving averages provide strong support for the current upward trend.

Overall, from the 45-minute chart, the ETH price shows strong bullish signals technically, but attention must be paid to the short-term pullback risks brought by the overbought zone.

Market Outlook 🔮

Considering the macroeconomic policy, institutional capital flow, and expectations for technical upgrades, Ethereum still possesses strong upward momentum in the future. In the short term:

• The market will continue to benefit from the Federal Reserve's easing signals and the reallocation of institutional funds, likely maintaining continuous capital inflow;
• The positive impact of the Fusaka upgrade will continue to stimulate investor confidence in the future network efficiency of Ethereum;

However, attention should also be paid to:

• RSI and other overbought indicators, which may trigger localized pullbacks in the short term;
• Traders should appropriately guard against adjustment risks in high-price areas, building positions in batches or taking profits at suitable times to protect capital.

Overall, under the continuous influence of positive macro and fundamental factors, ETH is expected to continue rising after completing short-term volatility consolidation, but the risk of short-term fluctuations and pullbacks still exists. It is recommended that investors remain vigilant and manage their positions effectively.

The above is a deep analysis of the current sharp volatility in the ETH market, and investors can adjust their operational strategies according to their own risk preferences.

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