On the first trading day of December 2025, the cryptocurrency market faced a severe storm driven by abrupt changes in macro policies. While the market widely anticipated that the Federal Reserve would cut interest rates in December, Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda sent the clearest signal yet for a rate hike on the morning of December 1, causing the market's expectations for a December rate increase to soar above 76%. This stark contrast in monetary policy completely disrupted the market's balance.

I. Macro "Black Swan": Divergence in Japan and U.S. Policies Withdraws Global Liquidity

The core driving force behind this plunge stemmed from the unexpected divergence in monetary policies of the two major central banks globally. On one hand, although the Federal Reserve had halted its "balance sheet reduction" and released liquidity into the market, whether it would continue to cut rates in December was still "far from certain." On the other hand, the Bank of Japan's unexpectedly tight shift directly impacted the "yen carry trade" model that had been in operation for years. Investors feared that a rate hike in yen would trigger a rapid unwinding of carry trades, leading to capital withdrawal from global high-risk assets. This expectation of tightening liquidity placed high-volatility assets like cryptocurrencies at the forefront.

At the same time, regulatory pressures also cast a shadow over market sentiment. Domestic regulations categorized stablecoins as virtual currencies, and the EU's MiCA legislation imposed strict restrictions on stablecoins, all of which suppressed market sentiment from a policy and compliance perspective.

II. Market Performance: Crash-like Decline and a Vicious Cycle of Liquidation

Under the aforementioned macro pressures, the market experienced a crash-like decline on the evening of December 1. Bitcoin (BTC) saw its price plummet by 8%, hitting a low of around $83,800; Ethereum (ETH) also suffered a significant drop, nearing the $2,700 mark that evening. This crash triggered a chain liquidation of highly leveraged contracts. Data showed that in the past 24 hours, the total liquidation amount across the network reached $941 million, with over 260,000 traders being forcibly liquidated, forming a vicious cycle of "decline - liquidation - sell-off," which sharply amplified market volatility.

III. Technical Analysis: Mid-term Bearish and Short-term Oversold Rebound

After the crash, the market's technical structure was severely damaged.

• Bitcoin: The monthly chart confirmed a bearish MACD crossover signal, which historically indicates that momentum will remain weak for the next 2-3 months, with the mid-term trend having turned bearish. The key support level has shifted from $84,000 down to the $80,000 mark.

• Ethereum: Similarly, its short-term rebound structure has been disrupted. Despite positive fundamentals such as the "Fusaka" upgrade, it struggles to stand alone in the face of systemic sell-offs.

As of the morning of December 2, the market saw an oversold rebound. Bitcoin rose back to around $87,000, and Ethereum returned above $2,800. Observing smaller cycles (such as the 4-hour chart), signs of declining downward momentum have emerged, indicating a demand for technical repair in the short term. However, due to the large cycle indicators having turned bearish and market sentiment being cautious, the strength of this rebound may be limited.

IV. Market Outlook: Focus on Key Resistance and Macro Speeches

Short-term trends will revolve around the interplay between oversold rebounds and mid-term bearish pressures.

• Key Levels:

  • For Bitcoin, the short-term resistance above is at $88,000, with significant resistance in the $90,000-$92,000 range; the initial support below is at $85,500, followed by the $84,000 mark, while the $80,000 level is widely regarded as the last support for bulls.

  • For Ethereum, resistance above is focused on the $2,880-$2,950 range; short-term support is at $2,750 and $2,700.

• Macro Catalysts: The market will closely monitor speeches from Federal Reserve officials and the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting next week. Any further hints regarding the December rate cut path could provide short-term direction for the market. If the tone is dovish, it may support the current rebound; if the stance is ambiguous or hawkish, it could further undermine market confidence.

Overall, the panic sell-off triggered by the unexpected divergence in U.S. and Japanese monetary policies has temporarily subsided, but the mid-term technical outlook of the market has been damaged. Until macro uncertainties are resolved and new sustained buying emerges, the market is expected to enter a high-volatility, overall bearish consolidation phase. Investors should be wary of the risk of a rebound encountering resistance and subsequently testing support again. The hope of returning above $90,000 in the short term is becoming increasingly dim!

This article is exclusively published by (WeChat public account: Jian Crypto) and is for reference only. Trading itself is not difficult; the challenge lies in human psychology and self-discipline. I hope we can all continuously improve ourselves through learning, honing ourselves, and striving for long-term resilience.

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