I saw that Tom Lee from Fundstrat predicts the S&P 500 index could reach 7,200 to 7,300 by the end of the year, so I did a rough calculation.
The statistical results from the past three years (2022–2025) show:
Bitcoin's Beta against the S&P is approximately 1.7 – 2.3 (varying with liquidity).
During periods of rising easing expectations or good ETF inflows, Beta can expand to 2.5 – 3.
Under the risk-averse sentiment brought about by interest rate hikes, Beta will fall back to 1 or below.
Currently, we are in a market where the expectation of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by the end of the year is strengthening, along with a return to easing expectations and a warming of liquidity sentiment. Therefore, I personally boldly predict = Beta is in the higher range (2.0–2.5).
So — —
If the S&P 500 goes above 7,200 points, it means that the market's risk appetite has begun to strengthen. If this possibility is realized, it is highly likely that the Federal Reserve will adopt a dovish stance in the December meeting.
Currently, the S&P 500 is at 6,800 points, and the move from 6,800 to 7,000 (a new high) is merely a correction based on fundamentals and interest rate cut expectations. However, moving above 7,000 carries a clear willingness to take on risk at high levels, and in this case, the elasticity of $BTC will be further amplified.
The recent increase in the S&P is approximately 6%–7.5%, and assuming BTC's Beta is in the range of 2–2.5, it means Bitcoin could potentially see a rebound of 12%–18%.
In simpler terms, if the S&P can reach 7,200 to 7,300, then BTC typically won't stop around 90,000 but will be pushed into a higher range, likely falling between 97,000 and 102,000 dollars.
When U.S. stocks can continue to rise at historical highs, it indicates that capital is no longer hesitant but is willing to return to high-elasticity assets to bear volatility. In such an environment, BTC's performance is generally more extreme than that of U.S. stocks, and the increase will also be more rapid.
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