Today's homework is tough. Although I don't know the main reason for the decline, it seems to be related to China's ongoing crackdown on cryptocurrencies and the rising interest rates in Japan. The former is manageable; we can get used to it. The latter is currently the biggest problem, especially since Japan's real interest rates have already risen. Today, Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda also hinted at weighing the pros and cons of interest rate hikes and appropriately raising the policy interest rate when conditions are ripe.

The yen has long served as the world's largest low-interest financing pool, providing invisible liquidity for U.S. tech stocks, AI assets, and risk assets like $BTC. When Japan enters an interest rate hike cycle, it means that the cost of financing is increasing. Cross-border institutions, quantitative funds, and risk parity strategies that originally relied on yen carry trades will be forced to deleverage. The narrowing of the U.S.-Japan interest rate spread may lead to capital flowing back to Japan, potentially shrinking the valuation premium of U.S. assets.

Moreover, Japan's interest rate hikes and real interest rate actions may have just begun. As interest rates increase, the potential liquidity damage could be greater. However, the global focus remains on AI-driven tech stocks, and the current cost of yen borrowing is still not high. If the Federal Reserve can enter a rapid rate-cutting phase, it could hedge against some of the negative impacts of yen interest rate hikes.

Looking at Bitcoin's data, today's price drop has caused panic, but the panic mainly comes from investors who bought in the last two days. Those holding positions around $90,000 are the largest part of today's turnover. Investors at other price levels seem to be relatively normal, with no obvious signs of panic. The restoration of confidence may still depend on the Federal Reserve.

However, from the perspective of the chip structure, it remains stable, with no signs of a large number of loss-making investors changing hands, especially for those with a holding cost above $100,000. This range still has the most positions recently and has not collapsed due to the price drop.

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