The world is bustling, all for profit; the world is bustling, all for profit to go! Hello everyone, I am your friend Lao Cui, focusing on digital currency market analysis, striving to convey the most valuable market information to the vast number of coin friends. I welcome everyone's attention and likes, and reject any market smoke screens!
After discussing some profound topics, many negative issues have indeed emerged. The following articles will focus more on financial analysis; moving forward, we will avoid policy interference and concentrate on market analysis. After two days of movement, Bitcoin has been contending around the 90,000 mark, and today it seems to show signs of stabilization. November 29 is closer to December. Regardless of how everyone defines this round of rebound, whether it is a short-term counterattack or a turning point between bull and bear, it cannot change the fundamental fact that Bitcoin is currently seeking a breakthrough upwards. This is almost consistent with our previous predictions; perhaps there will be new highs for Bitcoin in December. There is no need to elaborate on interest rate cuts and the end of balance sheet reduction. Returning to our exchange rate perspective, it is unclear whether the dollar is depreciating or if we are depreciating; this data cannot be verified. At the end of the year, we should take a look at the exchange rate trends. From the perspective of the coin circle, the exchange rate has remained stable around 7.1 for a whole year, and the recent selling price difference has also been maintained around 0.4, which is relatively stable this year.
This relative stability is more so compared to the trends of the previous two years. However, everyone needs to understand one point: the exchange rate compared to the best two years of economic conditions still feels vastly different. Without going into too much detail, everyone just needs to remember one thing: when the dollar appreciates, dollar assets will shrink; when the dollar depreciates, dollar assets will appreciate. Currently, the dollar is in a state of depreciation, and this trend of depreciation will continue for a while, which is a good thing for the coin circle. Many friends have a lot of internal conflict regarding the future market, and everyone must distinguish between speculation and prediction. Speculation at this stage is quite easy to understand; it is merely a question of rise or fall, which in Lao Cui's view is only a 50% probability. However, if you want to predict future trends, all foundations must align with reality and human nature; these two points are the basics of prediction. Once it deviates from these two foundations, it becomes speculation.
To put it simply, most friends may look at the same K-line chart and draw their own conclusions; whether it is up or down, especially due to psychological effects, if it has risen so much, it should fall; if it has fallen so much, it should rise. Once this mindset appears, for everyone, it is like holding an answer and looking for evidence that fits their speculation, disrupting the causal relationship that should be followed. Market predictions must revolve around existing evidence to deduce what may happen in the future, finding the most realistic conclusion among all conclusions. For example, in the current market, if everyone is bearish, it is merely because since the new high of 126,000, it has plummeted to around 80,000, creating a short-term bearish effect, even influencing retail investors' emotions. In this stage, shorting is certainly in line with the situation, but do not overlook the reality. The reality is that since Trump took office, the coin circle has entered a bull market, and all strategies have been driven by this.
From a long-term perspective, the current trend has not shown any reversal signals and is still in a bull market phase. At this point, many friends will ask Lao Cui a question: "It has been rising for so long, will it not fall?" In Lao Cui's eyes, this question is not a question at all; you have already concluded this trend in your mind, so why should it fall? Whether it is conspiracy theories about the U.S. monetizing debt, or whether you think there is a bubble in the coin circle, or whether you attack the pegged assets? Lao Cui has previously written articles explaining these three issues, so there is no need to elaborate here. The only reason for a decline could be that the big players want to hold at a lower price, which is a reality. In the 80,000 to 100,000 range, Lao Cui sees that American pension funds are accumulating Bitcoin, along with Swiss banks, Fidelity, BlackRock, and all the giants are buying in; they believe in the future, so how can you not believe?
The decline theory in your eyes is untenable; Bitcoin has long since lost its cyclical theory because the listing of ETFs has rationalized Bitcoin. How the residual heat will play out, Lao Cui cannot determine. This monetary revolution is unprecedented, and the final result may very well coexist like a virus. To borrow a phrase, think independently and discern right from wrong. When everyone feels that the future trend is shrouded in fog, look more at what these giants are doing, rather than what they are saying. The real information analysis at this stage is particularly laborious; for everyone, more energy may be spent on discerning the information in this market. Only after finding the real information can you have the ability to discern bullish and bearish factors. If you cannot confirm the trend of this information, you can find answers based on history. For example, regarding news like masks and tariff wars, for the coin circle, it is generally leaning towards a bullish trend, proving that its application scenarios are very numerous.
Do not rely on feelings to speculate on the market. According to the latest data, BlackRock has accepted 4,044 Bitcoins and 80,121 ETH from Coinbase in the past three days. The data shows that there is an inflow into the U.S. state. This further confirms that the world's virtual assets are flowing into American hands, and this phenomenon can only indicate that the U.S. will likely strongly promote the coin market, which aligns perfectly with Trump's decisions. However, there is a possibility of a decline along the way, so do not expect to return to the era below 50,000 unless there is a major crash or a fatal technical flaw. You must choose to stand on the same side as the giants; for spot users, even if holding long-term during Trump's term, there should not be too many issues, but it is best to avoid risks before he steps down and wait for the next president's policies to emerge before considering whether it is still worth intervening. With interest rate cuts approaching, do not stand on the wrong side anymore.
Lao Cui's summary: Overall, all trends are not much different from our analysis at the end of October, but in terms of the strength of the rebound, the current momentum is still insufficient. The reversal signal can only be judged by the interest rate cuts in December; the balance sheet reduction will soon end, and the long-term trend will start from balance sheet expansion, leading to a new round of bull market. Only after the expansion of the balance sheet can there be a possibility of challenging the 150,000 mark, which is very likely to be completed next year, especially with the interest rate cuts in early January. If it starts at 50 basis points, then this round of movement can at least be seen as a growth state until February, and new highs are not expected at the beginning of the year. Therefore, for contract users, it is advisable to temporarily abandon short positions in the short term and try to go long, maintaining this strategy before the interest rate cuts. Remember, this interest rate cut is not at the end of December but at the beginning of the month. At the end of the article, I would like to conclude with a quote from Buffett, hoping to encourage everyone: Diversification can only bring mediocre returns; for most fund managers, that is already decent enough. But Munger and I believe that this is far from enough; the essence of diversification is insurance against ignorance. If you truly understand what you are doing with your life, this strategy is meaningless. The real investment masters are those who dare to heavily invest in the targets they deeply understand.
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Lao Cui's message: Investing is like playing chess; masters can see five, seven, or even more than ten moves ahead, while those with lower skills can only see two or three moves. The skilled consider the overall situation and strategize for the big picture, not focusing on one piece or one square, with the ultimate goal of winning the game. The less skilled, however, will fight for every inch, frequently switching between long and short positions, only competing for short-term gains, and as a result, they often find themselves trapped.
This material is for learning reference only and does not constitute trading advice. Trading based on this is at your own risk!
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