Preface——
The sharp pain on my tongue suddenly made me realize: you can't rush when eating, and life is the same; only when the mistakes are completely wrong do you understand: don't be blinded by superficial profits, greed is the root of losses; without stop-loss, suffering from liquidation is heart-wrenching: self-comfort based on luck cannot withstand the harsh reality, respecting the rules is the bottom line. All the stumbling and falling are actually destined growth — if you don't trip a few times, you'll never know which path is stable and far-reaching; if you don't fall a few times, you'll never see which pits to avoid.
Having suffered losses and fallen, fear is useless, and sinking deeper is even more useless. The market is always full of opportunities, and the trend is always moving forward. What we need to do is to calm down and review every mistake, engrave the lessons into our bones, fill the gaps, practice hard skills, and gradually improve ourselves. The pits we once fell into have now become our "pitfall guide"; the mines we once stepped on have now become our "armor" — why can't we profit?!
In the market, most people fall in the darkness before dawn, complaining about bad luck; while true strong individuals can always endure the storms of tonight, turning every loss into a stepping stone, waiting for tomorrow's dawn to break through the clouds, smiling as they reap the profits that rightfully belong to them.
Market Macro Environment: Interest Rate Cut Expectations + Regulatory Benefits, Double Windfall Support
The probability of a 25bp interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December remains stable at 87%, with easing expectations continuously injecting confidence into risk assets, and Ethereum, as a mainstream crypto asset, directly benefits. Coupled with an improved regulatory environment, the SEC has clarified Ethereum as a "digital commodity," and the CLARITY Act has clarified compliance status, eliminating long-standing concerns about securitization and clearing obstacles for institutional funds to enter.
Against the backdrop of global liquidity easing, the US dollar index has softened, and funds are accelerating their migration from traditional assets to high-potential crypto assets. With the advantage of its smart contract ecosystem, Ethereum has become a core choice for institutional diversified allocation, jointly benefiting from macro policy dividends alongside Bitcoin.
Capital Flow: ETF + Staking + Ecosystem, Triple Capital Force Erupts
1. Record Inflows into ETFs
Ethereum spot ETFs have achieved net inflows for four consecutive days, with a single-day inflow of $60.82 million on November 26, and BlackRock's ETF recorded a massive single-day inflow of $92.6 million. As of now, cumulative net inflows into ETFs since December 2024 have exceeded $2.66 billion, with assets under management surpassing $19 billion, indicating a clear trend of institutional accumulation.
2. Staking Tightens Supply Side
The amount of Ethereum staked has surpassed 35 million coins, accounting for 28.3% of the total supply and continuing to rise. In the past week, only 2,100 coins have been unlocked and transferred, with most stakers choosing to lock up their assets long-term. Protocols like Lido and Ether.Fi are promoting the popularity of staking, with annualized returns reaching 2.74%-7.5%, attracting institutions to treat it as a "productive asset."
3. Ecosystem Capital Flow Recovery
The locked value in DeFi has stopped declining and rebounded, increasing by 4.2% to $22.8 billion, with significant inflows into leading protocols like Uniswap and Aave. The Layer 2 sector has become a safe haven for funds, with daily trading volumes for Arbitrum and Optimism exceeding ten million, and total value locked (TVL) increasing by 15%, driving the recovery of Ethereum's ecosystem activity.
Price Trend: Breaking Through the Consolidation Range, Stabilizing at the Key Level of 2900
Ethereum is currently stable around $3000, rebounding 10% from last week's low of $2680, successfully stabilizing in the key range of $2800-$2900. After a brief pressure at $3070 during yesterday's trading, it quickly retraced and then oscillated upward. Market liquidity during Thanksgiving was moderate, with price fluctuations narrowing, showing a "steady rise" trend.
A double bottom structure has formed on the daily level (with lows of 2760 on November 24 and 2880 on the 26th), and after breaking the neckline at 3050, it has continued to stabilize, validating the effectiveness of the upward momentum. On-chain data shows that the balance of ETH on exchanges has decreased by 317,000 coins, indicating an increased willingness among holders to withdraw coins to cold wallets, with long-term holding sentiment rising.
Technical Analysis: Multiple Indicators Resonating, Clear Short-Term Repair Trend
1. Key Technical Signals
Moving Average System: The 4-hour level has stabilized above EMA7 (2970) and EMA30 (2940), forming a short-term support zone, with moving averages showing a bullish arrangement;
MACD Indicator: The 4-hour level has achieved a second golden cross between DIF and DEA, with green bars on the daily level continuously shortening, indicating that repair momentum is strengthening;
Volume Performance: The price breakout was accompanied by a moderate increase in trading volume, and subsequent volume contraction during the pullback did not break key support, showing a healthy upward trend.
2. Core Price Level Analysis
Upper Resistance: $3100 (daily EMA120) → $3160 (psychological level) → $3370 (200-day moving average);
Lower Support: $3000 (psychological support, currently contested) → $2950 (EMA30) → $2870 (previous consolidation platform).
The current technical formation shows that Ethereum is in the pullback confirmation phase after the breakout, with a long lower shadow hammer line on the 4-hour level confirmed by a bullish candle. The short-term pullback space is limited, and if it can stabilize above $3000, it is expected to launch an attack on higher resistance.
Investment Strategy Recommendations: Grasp the Oscillation Rhythm, Layout for Ecosystem Dividends
Short-Term Trading Range
Long Position Strategy: Buy in the $2950-$2900 range on price pullbacks, targeting $3000-$3030;
Short Position Strategy: Short in the $3100-$3150 range on price rebounds, targeting $3050-$3000.
Medium to Long-Term Thinking
Ethereum is currently experiencing a quadruple resonance of "macro easing + institutional entry + technical upgrades + ecosystem recovery." In the short term, attention can be paid to the continuous inflow of ETF funds, while in the medium to long term, focus should be on the dividends from technical upgrades (Pectra upgrade, Verkle Trees implementation) and the expectations for the approval of staking ETFs. It is recommended to gradually build positions during the oscillation period, combined with Layer 2 ecosystem tokens (ARB, OP) for a diversified allocation, sharing the growth benefits of the entire ecosystem. Pay attention to the $3200-$3500 area above.
Outlook: Capital and Technology Resonating, Ethereum Begins a New Journey
Ethereum is currently stabilizing at $2900, a result of multiple factors including macro interest rate cut expectations, massive ETF inflows, tightening staking supply, and ecosystem recovery. Institutional funds continuously entering validate its asset value, and the resonance of multiple technical indicators shows a strong short-term trend, while the recovery of Layer 2 and DeFi at the ecosystem level solidifies the foundation for long-term growth.
Key Focus: Continuity of ETF fund inflows, breakthrough of the $3150 resistance, and the results of the Federal Reserve's December meeting. If it can break through $3150 with volume, it is expected to launch an attack on the $3373 200-day moving average; if it retraces and loses the $2900 support, caution is needed for an extended short-term consolidation period.
In the current market environment, it is recommended to adopt a "cautiously optimistic + flexible response" strategy, closely monitoring capital flows and key price changes to seize the dual-driven upward opportunity of the ecosystem and capital.
I really like a saying by the Buddha: "No matter who you meet, they are the person who is meant to appear in your life, not by chance; they will definitely teach you something." So I also believe: "Wherever I go, that is where I am meant to be, experiencing what I am meant to experience, meeting the people I am meant to meet." To everyone reading this article, thank you for crossing paths with me!
This article is exclusively published by (WeChat Official Account: Jane Crypto) for reference only. Trading itself is not difficult; the difficulty lies in human nature and lack of self-discipline. I hope we can all continuously improve ourselves through learning, refine ourselves, and strive for long-lasting strength.
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