Yesterday, while having dinner with friends, we talked about this topic. My personal judgment is that before 2028, the track that can shock this industry should be the prediction market, and the essence of the prediction market is the exchange, a trading platform centered around binary options. Currently, Polymarket and Kalshi have grown so large that they are hard to shake.

Many friends believe that Polymarket and Kalshi are not suitable for the Chinese-speaking region, which makes it difficult for entrepreneurs from this region to start prediction markets. However, it is not that the Chinese-speaking region is unsuitable; rather, it is that this region is not as sensitive to politics, sports, and economics.

For Chinese-speaking or Asian friends, having "0" or "1" actually has a unique advantage. The East Asian cultural sphere (China, Japan, South Korea, Vietnam, the Philippines) is often considered one of the cultural groups with the highest participation in "gambling."

You can see this from the contracts of exchanges. So, it is not that the prediction market is unsuitable for the Chinese-speaking region or China, but rather that directly copying the model of Polymarket and Kalshi is not suitable for the Asian market. To put it bluntly, without management talent with over five years of experience in the gambling industry, it is impossible to create a good prediction platform for the Asian market.

How can an entrepreneur who doesn't even know what House Advantage is possibly create an excellent prediction market for the Asian region?

PS: Friends in Singapore who are interested can talk to me about this topic.

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