The year 2026 is expected to be a mix of risks and opportunities. Personally, I estimate that the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut plan in 2026 will change from one instance in the September dot plot to at least three times, with one likely occurring in the first quarter. Given the current high number of layoffs in the U.S., even Powell may show signs of being dovish. Especially since it is highly probable that Trump's tariffs will be overturned in 2026.

(As of now, nearly 1.1 million people have been laid off in 2025, an increase of 65% compared to 2025, and four times that of the same period in 2024.)

After May 2026, the new Federal Reserve Chair will be in place, and the market will anticipate rapid interest rate cuts. By the June dot plot, there may be opportunities for more than four rate cuts, primarily in preparation for the midterm elections in November.

I have analyzed the midterm elections many times before. Interested friends can check out what I wrote in 2022, where I marked key dates as early as August based on historical patterns, and the results were consistent. This trend has not been wrong in nearly 60 years in the U.S.

Address: https://x.com/Phyrex_Ni/status/1564477261050392576?s=20

Of course, this does not mean that 2026 will necessarily be good. Currently, the biggest pitfall for the U.S. may be the possibility of economic recession under high interest rates. This is why I repeatedly emphasize to my friends that you don't need to understand any macroeconomic content; just look at the unemployment rate. If the unemployment rate exceeds 5.3% (the average initial value during recent economic recessions), the probability of recession will be very high.

Trump will do everything possible to delay the possibility of an economic recession, but that does not mean it will not happen. The midterm elections are very important for Trump and the Republican Party. First, the Senate is the key focus; all cabinet ministers, Federal Reserve governors, SEC chair, CFTC chair, Attorney General, and Supreme Court justices are appointed by the Senate.

Moreover, the Senate can decide whether to impeach the president. Of course, the House of Representatives is also very important; Trump lost the House during the midterm elections in his first term, which led to subsequent legislative proposals being obstructed.

Therefore, to secure both the Senate and the House, what Trump can do is to capture the emotional thread of the national electorate.

Economy, immigration, foreign affairs, trade, and culture are the key points. Once the economy enters a recession, it almost inevitably leads to the ruling party losing in the midterm elections. Therefore, Trump cannot afford to let the economy enter a recession in 2026; even if there are any signs, it must be delayed until after the midterm elections.

Thus, we can see that Trump's recent statements frequently involve the economy, immigration, foreign affairs, and trade. The economy is self-explanatory, immigration is again targeting Afghan refugees, and foreign affairs and trade have been tied together, promoting the return of manufacturing, all essentially aimed at the midterm elections and the 2028 elections.

Still, the saying goes: if the U.S. stock market is good, Bitcoin won't be too bad. If tech stocks continue to rise, $BTC will likely follow, even if the extent is smaller.

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