Brothers, there are only 34 days left in 2025, and this year has completely ruined the phrase "Black Friday."

In the past two months, the crypto market has been precisely harvested three times, all occurring on Fridays, with each drop more severe than the last, and the liquidation amounts increasingly exaggerated. The community has evolved from initial teasing to collective PTSD.

It is now the evening of November 27, and Bitcoin is hanging around 88,000. Tomorrow is the true "Black Friday" shopping festival in the West.

The question arises:

Will there be a fourth blow?

Let's review the three bloodbaths of 2025 (too painful to watch)

1. October 10-15 (First blow, a flash crash appetizer)

At a high of 126,000, it plummeted to around 106,000 within 25 minutes, with a total market liquidation of 19 billion USD and 1.64 million liquidations, marking the largest single-day massacre in the history of human cryptocurrency.

That Friday, someone in the crypto community first shouted, "Crypto's Black Friday."

2. November 14 (Second blow, breaking the support)

Bitcoin had just managed to stand back above 105,000, only to be smashed through the 100,000 mark on Friday, resulting in another 2 billion USD in liquidations.

The community was furious: "The Black Friday curse is real!"

3. November 21 (Third blow, the bloodiest of the year)

Last Friday, without warning, it dropped from 92,000 all the way to 81,000, hitting a low of 81,600, with 1.914 billion liquidated in 24 hours and 392,000 people taken out.

The drop from the high of 126,000 officially exceeded 35%, effectively halving the value.

On this day, the Chinese community directly flooded the phrase "Black Friday," with more heat than Double 11.

After three blows, Fridays in 2025 have become the "Death Calendar" for the crypto community.

But does history really have a "Black Friday curse"?

Many people think that a drop on Black Friday is an old tradition, but that's not the case at all.

I reviewed the actual Black Fridays in the U.S. from 2011 to 2024 (the day after Thanksgiving), and the results will surprise you:

● Only once did it drop over 8%, in 2021 (Omicron panic)
● In other years: either small increases, fluctuations, or outright large gains
● In 2013, Black Friday rose 15%, in 2017 it rose 8%, and in 2024, last year's Black Friday even rose 4-5%

The real conclusion is:

The Black Friday on the calendar has never been a curse; what’s truly terrifying is the combination of "Friday + high leverage + tightening liquidity."

And in 2025, all three elements are present:

● The overall market leverage rate has reached a historical high (average 30-50 times)
● U.S. stock quarterly settlements + marginal tightening of macro liquidity
● A policy vacuum period after Trump's return to power, leaving the market without a backbone

Thus, "Friday" has become the triggering day for a Lehman moment, rather than the last Friday of November on the calendar.

So will there be a fourth time tomorrow (November 28)?

I’ll lay out all the variables I can think of; you can judge for yourself:

Reasons it might drop (I personally lean towards this)

1. The past three Fridays have all seen drops, and the market has formed a conditioned reflex for panic selling.

2. Tomorrow is the true Black Friday in the U.S., with the shopping festival + quadruple witching day (options and futures expiration) overlapping, historically leading to high volatility.

3. Current long positions are still extremely heavy; Coinglass data shows a BTC long-short ratio of 1.92, and if shorts hit the gas, it could explode.

4. Below 88,000 is a vacuum; if it breaks, it’s 80,000 next.

Reasons it might not drop

1. Historical data shows that true Black Fridays rarely experience crashes (the survivor bias has been punctured).

2. The market has already seen three consecutive kills; the longs are nearly dead, and the shorts may be running out of ammunition.

3. The Trump team has recently hinted at a "strategic Bitcoin reserve," and there may be favorable news released before the weekend to save the situation.

4. Technically, the RSI is oversold, and the fear index VIX is also declining.

In conclusion

2025 has turned "Black Friday" from a meme into a true annual horror film.

Now the horror film has reached its fourth installment, and the director asks if you want to see the grand finale.

I personally have cleared my leverage, holding spot, and keeping my air position empty, just waiting to watch the show tomorrow.

What about you?

Will you believe this damn curse and take another hit,

or gamble that the dealer will finally go easy on us and let us have a good year?

Tomorrow night at 8 PM, we’ll see you in the market.

(Don't forget, this article might slap me in the face tomorrow night, but I dare to post it, so I dare to own it.)

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The above information is compiled from online sources and does not represent the views of the AiCoin platform. It does not constitute any investment advice; readers should discern and manage their financial risks independently.

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