Original Author: 1912212.eth, Foresight News
Bitcoin has finally rebounded from a low of $80,000 to above $90,000, slightly easing market panic. The consecutive two-month decline since October has left many investors disheartened. Will the upcoming December serve as an accelerator for the rebound?
December is not only event-packed but almost every positive event points in the same direction: liquidity easing + technological leap + policy friendliness. The three driving forces are working simultaneously.
Ethereum Activates Fusaka Upgrade on December 4
At the beginning of November, the Ethereum Foundation announced the Fusaka upgrade, which is scheduled to activate on Ethereum's mainnet at slot 13,164,544, expected around 5 AM on December 4, 2025.
The Fusaka upgrade aims to expand data capacity, enhance resistance to DoS attacks, and introduce new tools for developers and users.
This upgrade could have far-reaching implications. Fusaka is not a minor patch; it redesigns Ethereum's data availability management, blob pricing, and transaction protection mechanisms. Its success will depend on whether Ethereum can scale up to meet the growing demand for Layer 2 networks without causing network splits or overburdening node operators.
This upgrade includes 11 EIPs, with three core changes:
The core feature of the Fusaka upgrade is PeerDAS, a new way to handle blobs. Each node only needs to store a part of the blob (about one-eighth) and relies on cryptographic reconstruction techniques to fill in the missing data fragments. This design verifies data availability through random sampling, with an extremely low error probability of only 1 in 10²⁰ to 10²⁴.
The number of blobs increases from 9 to 15 (with BPO Fork1 officially taking effect on December 17), which directly means that Layer 2 transaction fees will significantly decrease again, with gas fees for mainstream L2s like Arbitrum, Optimism, and Base expected to drop by 30%-50%.
Additionally, ordinary EOA accounts will for the first time have "account abstraction" capabilities, allowing users to experience features like email + social recovery, private key delegation for transactions, and batch operations, aligning more closely with Web2. This will benefit user growth in high-frequency applications such as social, finance, and gaming.
Verkle Trees have been preliminarily laid out, establishing a foundation for future "stateless clients," reducing node synchronization time from weeks to hours, and lowering the costs for institutions and large funds running full nodes.
This Fusaka upgrade coincides with a breather after market despair, and the performance of ETH prices may be worth looking forward to.
Federal Reserve May Cut Rates by 25 Basis Points in December
The latest data from the CME FedWatch Tool shows that the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut at the December 10 meeting has surged to 85%, up from only 35% a week ago.
The direct reason for this rapid increase in probability is the significantly lower-than-expected PPI data for November, indicating a continued decline in inflationary pressures. The "tariff + tax cuts + energy deregulation" combination implemented during Trump's administration may temporarily raise inflation, but Federal Reserve officials have repeatedly stated that their primary goal remains a "soft landing" until 2026, and they will not easily shift to tightening.
A rate cut means a weaker dollar index, declining U.S. Treasury yields, and elevated valuations for risk assets. More importantly, if a rate cut occurs in December, it opens the path for 1-2 more cuts in the first quarter of 2026.
The market will trade in advance for the "rate cut trades" of 2026, which will help drive up the prices of risk assets.
Currently, Polymarket shows an 84% probability for a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December, with a 15% probability for no cut.
Federal Reserve Chair Candidate to be Announced Before Christmas, Hassett in the Lead
This could be the biggest "dark horse" positive news in December.
According to multiple media reports, Trump's team has narrowed down the list of candidates for Federal Reserve Chair to five, with National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett currently in the lead. There are even reports that Trump may announce the nomination before Christmas.
Polymarket data shows that the market bets on Hassett's probability at 53%.
Who is Hassett? He served as the Chairman of the White House Council of Economic Advisers during Trump's first term and is a typical "rate cutter" + "tax cutter." He has publicly criticized Powell for aggressive rate hikes, arguing that interest rates should be significantly lower than inflation rates. More crucially, Hassett has a very friendly attitude towards cryptocurrencies, stating in multiple interviews in 2024 that "Bitcoin is digital gold and should be included in strategic reserves."
If Hassett takes office, the Federal Reserve is likely to enter a "super-easy" mode.
Even if it is not Hassett in the end, the remaining candidates (such as Kevin Warsh and Chris Waller) have all been personally interviewed by Trump, making it unlikely for another Powell-like "hawk" to emerge. A shift in Federal Reserve policy towards friendliness is almost a certainty.
Mike Novogratz, founder of the well-known crypto investment firm Galaxy Digital, stated in a podcast that he still firmly believes Bitcoin can return to $100,000 by the end of the year, but there will be significant selling pressure at that time. This is because the "1011" crash has a mid-term psychological impact on the market. At the same time, Novogratz mentioned that with clearer crypto policies and the entry of traditional financial giants, the market will deeply differentiate in the future, and tokens that can provide value will be favored.
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