Crypto is transitioning from a "venture capital ecosystem driven by speculative concepts" to a "macro asset that can be traded by institutions," with the driving force shifting from retail investors to institutions. Prices are increasingly influenced by macro factors rather than the four-year Bitcoin halving cycle.

Cryptocurrency is evolving from the past ecosystem of "venture capital dominance + retail sentiment-driven" to a true macro asset class.

The power of retail investors chasing prices at highs has significantly diminished, while institutional funds are becoming the structural dominant force in the market. They have longer investment horizons and are more concerned with liquidity stability, volatility compression, and portfolio allocation, which is causing the pricing of crypto assets to shift from "narrative-driven" to "macro liquidity-driven."

Currently, the price volatility in the crypto market, especially for compliant assets dominated by $BTC, is increasingly determined by macro variables such as interest rates, Federal Reserve policies, inflation, employment, and ETF fund flows, rather than the BTC halving cycle we were familiar with in the past.

Crypto assets still face issues of deep imbalances and structurally low liquidity, but for institutions, this actually represents the greatest source of returns. It is also worth noting that institutions do not have a pessimistic long-term outlook; some even believe that under the structural backdrop of increasing institutional allocation and supply contraction, BTC could potentially see a long-term target of $240,000.

Overall, the crypto market is transitioning from an emotional cycle to a macro cycle, which means the pace will become more "slow variables determine direction, fast variables determine volatility," rather than the past model that relied entirely on retail sentiment to drive prices.

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