Content Source: Uweb Live Sharing Class
Content Organized by Peter_Techub News
With the successful election of Donald Trump as President of the United States, the prediction market has completely emerged. During the 2024 election, the betting amount on the Polymarket platform exceeded $2 billion, with a total market size reaching $3.7 billion, making "voting with real money" the most accurate thermometer of public opinion globally. On the evening of November 25, Uweb's 208th live session invited STAKER, co-founder of ABC Alpha, to deeply analyze this sector with teacher Wu Yaoshan: Is it a casino dressed in blockchain, or the sharpest information aggregation tool of the next decade?
I. Competitive Landscape: Two Giants and Many Strong Contenders, Polymarket has Become a "Bloomberg Terminal-Level" Existence
STAKER summarized the current landscape in one sentence: "Polymarket and Kalshi dominate, while others are just running alongside."
Polymarket: Native to the crypto space, decentralized, no KYC (international version), no house edge, focusing on political events, sports, and social hot topics. The 2024 U.S. election has completely brought it into the spotlight; Wall Street traders may "not know Ethereum, but they definitely know Polymarket." The latest registered users have reached 2.8 million, with approximately $4 million subsidized monthly for liquidity providers.
Kalshi: Compliant with U.S. CFTC licensing, focusing on sports events (especially American football and basketball), deeply integrated with platforms like Robinhood and Coinbase, providing liquidity access to traditional finance.
Azuro, Opinion, etc.: Mainly rely on volume manipulation, with very few real users; STAKER bluntly stated, "They issue tokens, cash out, and run away."
The landscape is set: Polymarket = decentralized global version, Kalshi = U.S. compliant version, and other projects have almost no chance of turning the tide in the short term.
II. Core Narrative: It is Not "Gambling," but "Buyer Consensus" and "Social Thermometer"
More Accurate than Polls: In the 2024 U.S. election, traditional polling agencies generally favored Harris, while Polymarket accurately bet on Trump from start to finish, ultimately becoming the closest prediction to the actual result.
More Authentic than Experts: The probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut in December had the media in a frenzy, while Polymarket directly provided an 83% market consensus; AI (ChatGPT) now considers Polymarket as a high-confidence data source, with 11.8% of new users coming from ChatGPT recommendations.
Decentralized Nuclear Weapon Attribute: Traditional bookmakers dare not open markets (When will Putin step down? Will there be a coup in Russia?), but Polymarket dares to, because "no one can control me." STAKER revealed that the only place Polymarket advertises is Russia—this itself is an invisible information warfare weapon.
III. Investment Opportunity Analysis: Polymarket Tokens May Be the Sexiest Asset of the Next Decade
Last round of financing: $9 billion valuation confirmed (not just hype)
Current rumors: $12 billion valuation for another round, suspected Pre-IPO
STAKER's personal valuation model: FDV $30-100 billion (referencing Astar's 10,000 daily active users corresponding to $10 billion, Polymarket's real user ratio is much higher than Astar)
Token issuance time window: As early as June 2025 (peak traffic during the World Cup)
Recommendations: Aim for a single account trading volume of around $5,000; there’s a high probability of entering the top 500,000 (the top 20%-50% likely to receive airdrops), but remember "it’s easy to get carried away and face liquidation," focus on experience and restrain greed.
Inside Scoop: Where is the Hidden Gold Mine?
During the internal session, STAKER made a bold judgment:
"There is fundamentally no third player that can survive in this sector; Polymarket and Kalshi have dug their moats all the way to the Pacific. Just capturing Polymarket is enough to last three lifetimes; other so-called 'water delivery' projects have basically no chance."
He even believes that Polymarket's long-term ceiling may surpass Ethereum because it not only makes money but can also "reverse influence the real world"—this is the killer application that truly brings blockchain into the mainstream.
Conclusion:
The prediction market is not a casino, but the most honest and sharpest social thermometer in human history.
Polymarket uses real money to aggregate information scattered in everyone's minds into the closest probability to the truth.
When AI, media, financial institutions, and even countries start to reference it, it is no longer just a crypto project but part of the global information infrastructure.
In 2025, it may not be Bitcoin's Super Cycle, but Polymarket's Super Cycle.
(But remember STAKER's final words:
"The most important thing in playing the prediction market is—restraint, restraint, and more restraint.")
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