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Market Outlook: The Mid-Market Bottoming Provides a Re-Selection of Direction for the Future Market

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财经黎沐
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5 months ago
AI summarizes in 5 seconds.

Good evening everyone, this is the Limu Channel. Today, I would like to take some time to explain the current market trend direction and contract trading points. I will continue the previous viewpoint: the market has clearly completed a mid-level bottom formation, and the current trend is still not finished. Now, regarding the target of this round of movement and how the next phase will evolve, let's discuss.

Recently, the macro market has started to gradually warm up. We won't delve too much into the improving relations between the two parties, as it’s not convenient to discuss in depth. However, the recent dovish remarks from the FOMC have already been enough to boost confidence in the current trend, with the probability of a rate cut in December soaring to nearly 70%. Meanwhile, with the U.S. government resuming operations and the release of trillions of dollars in liquidity, regardless of where it flows, the boost to the overall financial market is unparalleled. If we consider this before the recent decline, it would undoubtedly signal the continuation of a bull market. However, under the current extreme panic in the market, the monthly line shows a weakening trend that has reversed. I can only tentatively view this as a mid-term upward trend while maintaining the viewpoint of a bull market continuation.

Looking back at the market, the structure has also released clear signals. First, regarding the support of the EMA21 at the monthly level mentioned earlier, and secondly, the signals released at the daily level. The daily candlestick and the two-day candlestick have both closed above the entity channel while providing a clear reversal at TD13. The weekly candlestick is approaching the MA120 support. Combined with the previous viewpoints, this is sufficient to support the upward trend in this round, with the primary target looking towards the daily resistance around 9.18W and the corresponding target around 3100. Based on the resistance situation and the macro market at that time, we will determine whether it is a new downward trend or a continuation of the bull market.

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