Last Friday, Williams announced support for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates in December. On Monday, Waller and Daly also spoke in favor of the Fed's rate cut in December. Waller is a known Trump supporter, and now Daly also supports the rate cut, which is better news for the market. After all, the recent decline started when Powell announced that there would be no rate cut in December, compounded by the U.S. government shutdown. Now that the shutdown has ended, liquidity is gradually returning.
The key point is that the number of doves supporting a rate cut has now exceeded half. According to CME's prediction data, the probability of a Fed rate cut in December has now surpassed 85%, so the market is gradually warming up. Not only are U.S. stocks rising, but $BTC is also just a step away from ninety thousand dollars. This week is Thanksgiving and Black Friday, mainly focusing on the first three days. After that, we can take a break, hoping there won't be any unexpected issues.
Some friends asked about filling the gaps. Recently, both BTC and $ETH have filled their gaps, and there are a few gaps that are only a few dollars, which are negligible and clearly no longer exist.
Looking back at Bitcoin's data, the turnover rate has dropped to a more normal level as of Monday, and investor sentiment has significantly eased. Although expectations for the Fed have improved, the bigger trouble at the December meeting may be the dot plot and the potential rate cut in January 2026. From the current perspective, the dot plot for 2026 should be greater than the two from September, which is a positive sign. However, if Powell maintains a tough stance on the 2026 expectations, there may still be trouble.
Yesterday was the wallet switch for Coinbase, which caused significant fluctuations, leading to a substantial increase to $85,000. However, the structure of the loss-making chips has not been affected, and support remains intact, so the probability of returning to the support level is still quite high.
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