Author: 1912212.eth, Foresight News

At 10 PM Beijing time this Monday, Monad will officially launch its mainnet, and its tokens will also be available for trading. The previous Coinbase Monad token sale ended on Sunday. The company recently released specific data on the MON token sale, with 858,000 participants from over 70 countries collectively subscribing for $269 million, exceeding the target by 144%. The average allocation amount was $2,188, with the highest allocation reaching $57,517.

From a Slow Start to Over-Subscription

The public offering started on November 17 and lasted until November 22, aiming to raise $187.5 million. The public offering price was fixed at 0.025 USDC/MON, with a total supply of 10 billion tokens, and the public offering allocation accounted for 7.5% (approximately 750 million tokens), fully circulating with no lock-up. The fully diluted valuation (FDV) was approximately $2.5 billion.

The sales process was dramatic. In the 30 minutes before the opening, subscriptions quickly reached $43 million, showing initial enthusiasm. However, mid-term sales slowed, and by mid-November, only 48% (approximately $90.05 million) had been completed, raising market doubts. But the outcome reversed. On the last day of sales, late buyers flooded in, pushing the total amount beyond the target. Ultimately, Monad raised approximately $269 million.

This public offering is the first public token sale conducted under U.S. regulation by Coinbase since 2018. Coinbase emphasized that the sales structure encouraged participants to wait until the end to submit, ensuring a fairer distribution.

The Coinbase public offering rules were bottom-filling, with the maximum allocation for a $100,000 subscription being $57,000. According to a screenshot from a Twitter user with the ID Bitwux, their participation resulted in approximately 2.3 million MON tokens.

According to the latest quotes on MON perpetual contracts on Lighter, the price is $0.032. If the opening price maintains at $0.032, the user's profit from this public offering would be approximately $16,000, with a return of about 28%.

This public offering coincided with a significant drop in BTC, leading to a rapid shift in market sentiment to bearish, with the value of altcoins facing overwhelming skepticism from retail investors. Therefore, Monad's over-subscription amount is far less than that of previous projects like Plasma and MegaETH.

In the Twitter community, opinions on the price of MON upon launch are sharply divided. Some players stated, "I won't lose money; I can make a little at the opening price."

Some users even expressed optimism, saying, "At the current market price, the ROI in one day is 18%. It actually looks better than stablecoins and Mega. Discrepancies lead to big profits; certainty causes endless competition."

However, many players are quite pessimistic, questioning why anyone would take on the spot market. In recent months, such top-tier projects have dropped by 70-80%, so why would anyone buy in the secondary market?

Currently, FUD sentiment remains high. Additionally, with this public offering, Coinbase has excluded users from mainland China, leading to even more dissatisfaction. Some players have bluntly stated they would not take on such "top-tier projects."

This Monad ICO is also the first time a large institutional issuer has publicly disclosed its market maker list, funding scale, and execution period.

Community members jokingly remarked that its substantial market-making lineup might support the token price in the initial month.

According to data from Polymarket, the current market bets that Monad's FDV will exceed $2 billion the day after launch have a probability of 94%, while the probability of exceeding $3 billion is 60%.

Restless Meme

The upcoming launch of the new public chain has also energized a group of players eager to create memes.

Data shows that Gmonad currently has a market cap of $382,000, while Anago has reached $643,000, with both having trading volumes exceeding $1 million.

Gmonad is a commonly used greeting in the official community.

Anago is the pet dog of Monad founder Keone, who has been mentioned in past historical tweets.

Monad's official tweet also mentioned Anago, giving it considerable recognition within the Monad community.

Players can first use a cross-chain bridge to convert USDC on Solana to USDC on the Monad chain. Since its mainnet has not yet officially launched, MON tokens may need to be obtained through various project activities. After adding the Monad chain to their wallet, they can trade on GMGN.

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