Today's homework is indeed tough. I was hoping that Nvidia's earnings report would boost investor sentiment, as the AI bubble doesn't seem so easy to burst. It did provide a short-term lift, but after the US stock market opened, Nvidia started to decline. By 11:40 PM, the entire US stock market was down, erasing the Nasdaq's 2.5% gain at the opening and closing down 2.3%, with nearly a 5% fluctuation in one day, which is quite rare.

Especially since today's non-farm payroll data was relatively favorable for a rate cut in December, yet the market still experienced such a significant drop. Indeed, a drop without negative news is a signal that danger is beginning, often indicating that liquidity has started to tighten. The last time this happened felt very much like early 2022. However, from the VIX data, it still looks quite awkward, currently at 26, which is a tricky range.

If it continues to break above 30, it would indicate that the market has entered a bearish sentiment zone. If it further breaks above 50, it is likely to be the bottom. If it remains around 22 to 27, it only means the market will continue to oscillate up and down, so being stuck in between is the most troublesome.

Looking back at Bitcoin's data, although the price is falling, it is clear that the turnover rate is decreasing. While one day's data cannot represent much, the turnover rate has been declining for two consecutive days, indicating that the number of panicked investors is gradually decreasing. Although it hasn't returned to normal levels yet, the reduction in chips under panic selling is real.

Although the sentiment is currently poor, it is basically expected that there will be no rate cut in December. Right now, it seems to be waiting for a gradual bottoming out, and then we will see the Federal Reserve's response. Next, we will see how Trump responds to the stock market decline. From the URPD data, the current chip structure is still relatively safe, and the support level has not collapsed.

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