Don't worry about not having friends on the road ahead; there are like-minded people on the investment journey! Good afternoon, everyone! I am the Coin King of the Coin Victory Group! Recently, the drama in the crypto world is more thrilling than a soap opera! The good news is that Nvidia's earnings report has skyrocketed, pulling the dying crypto market back from the brink; the bad news is that the Americans are playing tricks again—October's non-farm payrolls were directly canceled, and the November report has been postponed to December 16. As a result, Bitcoin hit a new low last night, dropping to 89K. This operation is truly outrageous!
On the other side, things are even more ridiculous. They keep saying they want to replace old Powell! The current term ends in May next year, but the board's term can last until 2028. Whether or not to change people and when to change all depends on Powell's mood swings. The market is left hanging, which is quite something!
Back to the market, let's analyze Bitcoin's recent decline—it's really not complicated; it's just a standard WXY combined adjustment, playing the old tricks clearly! From August 14 to October 17, we first had a boring W-shaped platform oscillation that drained your patience; then suddenly, it shot up from 103.5K to 116K, just hitting the Fibonacci 0.618 level. Did you think it was going to reverse? How naive! They just came to deliver the final blow! Starting from November 11, it plummeted all the way down to 89K today, perfectly executing an ABC single sawtooth pattern. The A=C structure was fully realized this morning, and the bears are thrilled! But to be blunt, after dropping this much, it should be nearing the bottom— a drop of -30% has been achieved, what should have fallen has fallen, and what should have exploded has exploded. A rebound is now inevitable; at least there should be a decent pullback targeting the Y wave!
For a rebound, it needs to touch above 97K, with 95K likely to block the way first—after all, that's the previous dense consolidation area, so it's normal to face some resistance! The real signal point is at 97.8K, and above that is the major resistance at 108K. But let's not daydream about a reversal; reversals are confirmed step by step, not based on wishful thinking! The biggest challenge for the bulls now is to quickly push the price back above 96K, but the difficulty is akin to climbing to the sky! Above 94K, a bunch of short-term players are itching to short the rebound, while the main players want to accumulate in a controllable range, not giving retail investors a chance to pick up bargains. So don't expect an instant surge; it's more likely to crawl up slowly!
Looking at Ethereum, it finally has some human touch in the last few hours, bouncing from the previous low of 2880 to 3023. However, the daily line is still lying under the major adjustment from 3166, and the rebound is as weak as if it hasn't eaten! But the gap has been filled quite well—the gap from 2835 to 2925 was filled down to 2872, just 37 points short, which gives the gap believers some explanation. I must say, this gap theory can sometimes be quite eerie!
Yesterday, Ethereum's daily line closed at the November VAL 3015, and 3000 temporarily looks like a bottom, but if it doesn't stabilize above 3200, any rebound is just a trap! The market is full of "slap you back" scripts, so don't let your guard down!
Focusing on Bitcoin: 90.4K is still a decent technical correction level, but it needs to be clear—if it can stabilize at this low point and slowly rise, that would be a sign of a potential counter-trend rebound; if it wants to form a reverse head and shoulders pattern, theoretically it's possible, but let's not get ahead of ourselves. Let's celebrate only if it actually forms; otherwise, it's all just empty talk! The biggest problem now is that the market keeps hitting new lows, and the lows are diving!
In fact, dropping to 90.4K isn't necessarily a bad thing; rather, it's an opportunity to build structure, catch a breath, and then rebound! But as long as it drops below 90K again, this level will immediately turn from support to resistance, and any subsequent rebound will be crushed, leading to further lows, which wouldn't be surprising!
Don't expect to break through the second resistance at 94.5K all at once; this area is full of short positions accumulated from the previous stepwise decline! To break through 94.5K to 96K, it must first push past and stabilize above the 20MA; otherwise, all rebounds are just noise, purely a waste of effort!
Finally, let me say something heartfelt: if you want to learn real things in the crypto world, you need to follow the right people for the long term. Don't just make random evaluations after watching the market a couple of times! The market is full of performers; today they flaunt long positions, tomorrow they flaunt short positions, and while it seems like they catch every top and bottom, in reality, it's all hindsight! The truly reliable ones have consistent logic that can withstand scrutiny, not just jumping in when the market moves!
Our Coin Victory Group is full of exclusive insights; search for "Coin Victory Group" on WeChat to find us! We have real-time strategies, techniques for breaking even, and contract trading methods, along with free experience groups and live broadcasts! If you find it useful, give us a like and follow, and with the Coin King, you can profit from the rebound market too!
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