Yesterday we talked about the bulls starting a counterattack, but the trend is still bearish. Today we see that two lower shadow lines have formed. If the market wants to continue to decline, it would be best to eliminate these two lower shadow lines in a short time; otherwise, the bulls will continue to counterattack, which would be unfavorable for the bears. Therefore, whether the market can continue to decline depends on the next two days.
From the MACD perspective, the energy bars have retracted, but the extent of the retraction is not large. The fast line and slow line are still moving downward. To stop the decline, we need to see the fast line flatten out first.
From the CCI perspective, the CCI is currently in a sideways trend. If this pattern continues, there is a possibility of stopping the decline. Therefore, if the market wants to continue to decline, it needs to break out in the next two days; otherwise, it may stop declining.
From the OBV perspective, the OBV has been continuously flowing out, making it difficult for the bulls to mount a significant counterattack. Thus, we believe the probability of continuing to decline is greater.
From the KDJ perspective, after a sideways movement, the KDJ shows signs of moving downward, indicating a possibility of continued decline. However, it is not confirmed yet as the lines have not closed.
From the MFI and RSI perspectives, the MFI is moving upward, likely due to the bulls' counterattack in the past two days, while the RSI remains stagnant in the weak zone. Here, we continue to view the market as bearish.
From the moving average perspective, the moving averages continue to press down, with no signs of turning around. Even if there is no decline, we need to see the moving averages flatten out first. Without this, we will maintain a bearish mindset.
From the Bollinger Bands perspective, the Bollinger Bands continue to maintain a downward channel trend, indicating a bearish trend as well. We will continue to view the market as bearish. The support level we observed at 88500 also played a role, as the price rebounded after hitting around 88500.
In summary: The bulls have initiated a counterattack in the past two days. If the counterattack continues, there is a possibility of stopping the decline. Therefore, for the bears to continue to decline, they need to push down further in the next two days. We will see whether the bulls or bears exert more strength. Today's resistance is seen at 92500-93500, and support is at 90000-88500.
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