The non-farm payroll data for September has just been released. To be honest, this data is not very useful because it reflects the situation before the shutdown. However, due to the shutdown, the non-farm payroll data for October may not be published, making the September data the only non-farm labor data available to the Federal Reserve before the December interest rate meeting.

Why do I say this? Because in addition to non-farm payrolls, there are also ADP and Challenger data, as well as initial unemployment claims data, which can provide some guidance. The reason I believe the September data is not significant is that there have been many layoffs in large companies in October and November, which are not reflected in the September data. Additionally, the labor loss data caused by the shutdown is also not included.

However, the important unemployment rate data has changed, reaching 4.4% in September. It is estimated that the October or November figures may exceed 4.5%. This is the neutral value for the Federal Reserve in 2025, which is also a warning level. An increase in the unemployment rate is conducive to stimulating the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates.

Of course, this also indicates that the U.S. economy may face risks, and wages are declining. These are not good news, but they are indeed favorable for interest rate cuts. The probability of a rate cut in December is still 50-50.

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